All Reports
1Q 2023

Zero Emissions Trucks and Buses

Global Forecasts for Battery Electric and Fuel Cell Trucks and Buses, 2023-2032

The significant focus on decarbonizing the heavy commercial vehicle (HCV) segment in 2022 has primarily benefitted vehicles with electrified drivelines. Regulation is one factor, but an increasingly significant driver is that transportation end users are looking to address their Scope 3 emissions footprints and thus, are mandating the use of low emission or zero emission vehicles. This report reviews and provides analysis of the HCV market as its decarbonization drives a transition from a reliance on internal combustion engines, powered by diesel, to a greater focus on non-fossil-fueled propulsion. Guidehouse Insights regards the market for electrified drivelines as firmly established and one that is set to grow quickly during the forecast period covered in this report (2023-2032).

In addition, the report provides adoption forecasts for battery electric (BEV) trucks and fuel cell (FCV) trucks. The analysis points to the former having a significant advantage in the marketplace during the forecast period because of a confluence of factors including the cadence of directly and indirectly applicable regulation and considerations of cost and fitness for purpose.

This Guidehouse Insights report forecasts adoption rates and revenues for the global electric HCV market, segmented by technology types (BEV versus FCV) and by global region.

Pages 45
Tables | Charts | Figures 48
  • How is the global market for electrified HCVs likely to develop over the next decade?
  •  Is it possible to establish a dominant technology at this point in the market’s development?
  • What are the key drivers behind these developments?
  • What are the primary regional differences within this market?
  • To what extent are the legacy OEMs threatened by these changes?
  • Legacy truck OEMs
  • Market entrant truck OEMs
  • Toer 1 suppliers
  • Investors and venture capitalists
  • Regulatory bodies

1. Executive Summary

1.1     Introduction

1.2     Market Outlook

2. Market Issues

2.1     Introduction

2.2     Fuel Cell versus Battery Electric

2.3     Electric Trucks and Buses

2.3.1    Applications

2.3.2    Goods Vehicles

2.3.3    Passenger Vehicles

2.4     Market Drivers

2.4.1    Regional Emissions Regulations

2.4.1.1   North America

2.4.1.2   Europe

2.4.1.3   Asia Pacific

2.4.2    Local and Municipal Emission Regulations

2.4.2.1   Indirect Regulation

2.4.3    Procurement Incentives

2.4.4    Fiscal Incentives

2.5     Market Challenges and Restraints

2.5.1    Trading Cycle and Trade Equity

2.5.2    Vehicle Range

2.5.3    Charging Infrastructure

2.5.4    Future Diesel Engine Regulation

3. Key Industry Players

3.1     Legacy Truck and Bus Manufacturers

3.1.1    AB Volvo

3.1.2    Daimler Truck

3.1.3    Hyundai

3.1.4    Switch Mobility

3.1.5    Traton SE

3.1.6    VDL

3.2     Non-Legacy Truck and Bus OEMs

3.2.1    BYD

3.2.2    Nikola

3.2.3    Proterra

3.2.4    Quantron

3.2.5    Tesla

3.2.6    Tevva

3.2.7    Volta Trucks

3.2.8    Yutong

4. Market Forecasts

4.1     Scope

4.2     Methodology

4.3     Limitations

4.4     Key Assumptions

4.5     Results

4.5.1    The Overall HCV Market

4.5.2    ZE Trucks

4.5.3    ZE Buses

4.5.4    Battery versus Fuel Cell

5. Conclusions and Recommendations

5.1     What Guise Will ZE Take?

5.2     The Role of Regulation

5.3     BE Technology and Binary Compliance

5.4     The Problem for Truck Manufacturers

5.5     The Opportunity for Suppliers

6. Acronym and Abbreviations

7. Table of Contents

8. Table of Charts and Figures

9. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

  • ZE HCV Sales by Powertrain, World Markets: 2023-2032
  • HCV Sales by Vehicle Type, World Markets: 2023, 2028, 2032
  • HCV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2023, 2028, 2032
  • ZE Truck Sales by Vehicle Type, World Markets: 2023, 2028, 2032
  • ZE Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2023, 2028, 2032
  • ZE Bus Sales by Vehicle Type, World Markets: 2023, 2028, 2032
  • ZE Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2023, 2028, 2032
  • BE HCV Penetration Rate by Region 2023, 2028, 2033
  • FC HCV Penetration Rate by Region 2023, 2028, 2033
  • Regional Forecast Segments
  • HCV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2023-2032
  • HCV Sales by Percentage, World Markets: 2023-2032
  • Goods Delivery Van Sales by Region, World Markets: 2023-2032
  • Rigid Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2023-2032
  • Semi Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2023-2032
  • Transit and Coach Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2023-2032
  • Shuttle Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2023-2032
  • Regional Bus Sales as a Percentage of Global Total, World Markets: 2023-2032
  • Regional Truck Sales as a Percentage of Global Total, World Markets: 2023-2032
  • Goods Van Sales a Percentage of Total Truck, World Markets: 2023-2032
  • Rigid Truck Sales a Percentage of Total Truck, World Markets: 2023-2032
  • Semi Truck Sales a Percentage of Total Truck, World Markets: 2023-2032
  • Transit and Coach a Percentage of Total Bus, World Markets: 2023-2032
  • Shuttle Percentage of Total Bus, World Markets: 2023-2032
  • ZE Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2022
  • ZE Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2022
  • ZE HCV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2023-2032
  • ZE Goods Delivery Van Sales by Region, World Markets: 2023-2032
  • ZE Rigid Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2023-2032
  • ZE Semitruck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2023-2032
  • ZE Transit and Coach Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2023-2032
  • ZE Shuttle Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2023-2032
  • Total ZE Bus by Region, World Markets: 2023-2032
  • Total ZE Bus Percentage by Region, World Markets: 2023-2032
  • Total ZE Truck by Region, World Markets: 2023-2032
  • Total ZE Truck Percentage by Region, World Markets: 2023-2032
  • BE HCV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2023-2032
  • BE Goods Delivery Van Sales by Region, World Markets: 2023-2032
  • BE Rigid Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2023-2032
  • BE Semitruck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2023-2032
  • BE Transit and Coach Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2023-2032
  • BE Shuttle Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2023-2032
  • FC HCV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2023-2032
  • FC Goods Delivery Van Sales by Region, World Markets: 2023-2032
  • FC Rigid Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2023-2032
  • FC Semitruck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2023-2032
  • FC Transit and Coach Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2023-2032
  • FC Shuttle Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2023-2032
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Accelerating the Electrification of Commercial Vehicles
By Sam Abuelsamid