All Reports
2Q 2024

The Global Electric Bus Market

Battery Electric and Fuel Cell Heavy Passenger Vehicles, Market Forecasts: 2025-2034

Buses play a fundamental role in global society, enabling both economic development and social mobility. Mass passenger transport is a fundamental necessity in every part of the world, and buses have historically provided much of the necessary capacity and will likely continue to do so. They also offer a simple yet highly effective decarbonization lever via electrification.

The global bus market is a mature one, but the same may not be said for the electric bus market. Passenger transport is regarded as a clear opportunity for decarbonization, and interest in non-internal combustion engine alternative propulsion methods has been developing over the last decade. This Guidehouse Insights report examines the global market for heavy electric buses over the next 10 years. It presents forecasts for the overall bus market segmented into three categories: transit buses, long-distance buses, and school buses. For these three segments, unit sales and adoption rates are presented for both battery electric (BE) and fuel cell (FC) vehicles.

The report concludes that, while the adoption of BE buses—most notably in the transit and school bus segments—is already well underway and developing momentum, the outlook for FC buses is far less assured, as a function of both cost and appropriateness.
Pages 40
Tables | Charts | Figures 45
  • To what extent is decarbonization within the heavy bus sector being driven by regulation?
  • Which segments within the bus industry are likely to be early adopters of zero emissions technology?
  • What is the impact of buses’ longer investment timeline and trading cycle on market development?
  • What are the key growth regions for electric buses?
  • What are the primary barriers to the adoption of electric buses?
  • Industry suppliers
  • Equipment aggregators and OEMs
  • Regulators and legislators
  • City and municipal authorities
  • Investors

1. Executive Summary

2. Market Issues

2.1   Drivers

2.1.1   Incentivization  

2.1.2   Regional Emissions Regulations

2.1.2.1   North America

2.1.2.2   Europe

2.1.2.3   Asia Pacific

2.1.3   Local Regulations

2.1.4   Tendering and Procurement Criteria

2.1.5   Procurement Cost

2.2   Barriers

2.1   Cold Weather Impact

2.2.2   Lack of Reliability and Interchangeability

2.2.3   Lack of Trained Technicians

2.2.4   Charging Issues

2.3   Pricing

3. Industry Value Chain

3.1   Competitive Landscape

3.1.1   Mergers and Acquisitions

3.1.2   Business Model Evolution

4. Market Forecasts

4.1   Scope

4.2   Methodology

4.3   Limitations

4.4   Key Assumptions

4.5   Forecasts

4.5.1   Overall Bus Market

4.5.2   Electric Bus Market

4.5.3   Transit Bus Market

4.5.3.1   Battery Electric Transit Buses

4.5.3.2   Fuel Cell Transit Buses

4.5.4   Long-Distance Bus Market

4.5.4.1   Battery Electric Long-Distance Buses

4.5.4.2   Fuel Cell Long-Distance Buses

4.5.5   School Bus Market

4.5.5.1   Battery Electric School Buses

4.5.5.2   Fuel Cell School Buses

5. Conclusions and Recommendations

5.1   Three Big Takeaways

5.2   Recommendations

5.2.1   OEMs and Suppliers

5.2.2   Regulators and Legislators

5.2.3   Transit Authorities

5.3   Conclusion

6. Acronym and Abbreviation List

7. Table of Contents

8. Table of Charts and Figures

9. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

  • Bus Market Share by Powertrain, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • Mean Distance between Transit Bus Road Calls, Twin Cities, MN: 2019-2022
  • Electric Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • Transit Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • BE Transit Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • BE Transit Bus Adoption Rate by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • FC Transit Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • FC Transit Bus Adoption Rate by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • Long-Distance Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • BE Long-Distance Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • BE Long-Distance Bus Adoption Rate by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • FC Long-Distance Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • FC Long-Distance Bus Adoption Rate by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • School Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • BE School Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • BE School Bus Adoption Rate by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • FC School Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • FC School Bus Adoption Rate by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • Electric Bus Value Chain
  • Forecast Regions
  • Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • Bus Market Share by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • Transit Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • Long-Distance Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • School Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • Electric Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • Electric Bus Adoption Rate by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • ICE Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • ICE Bus Adoption Rate by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • Bus Market Share by Powertrain, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • BE Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • BE Transit Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • BE Transit Bus Adoption Rate by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • BE Long-Distance Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • BE Long-Distance Bus Adoption Rate by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • BE School Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • BE School Bus Adoption Rate by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • FC Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • FC Transit Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • FC Transit Bus Adoption Rate by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • FC Long-Distance Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • FC Long-Distance Bus Adoption Rate by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • FC School Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • FC School Bus Adoption Rate by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
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