- Is the electrification of trailers a core part of heavy commercial vehicle decarbonization?
- To what extent is decarbonization being driven by regulation?
- What impact does trailers’ longer investment timeline and trading cycle have on market development?
- Is trailer electrification likely to prove segment specific?
- Will trailer electrification affect the existing industry business model?
3Q 2023
Trailer Electrification
Shore Power Plus Battery, Mild Solar, Full Solar, and E-Axle Technologies, Global Forecast and Market Analysis, 2023-2032
The impact of decarbonization on transportation has been marked and is becoming more so. Within the light duty segment, hybrid vehicles and EVs are, in some markets, now outnumbering their internal combustion engine counterparts. Interest is also growing in the heavy commercial vehicle segment, and within a decade both Europe and North America will see significant adoption of electric trucks and buses.
Trailers are a fundamental component of the global road transportation fleet, but whereas truck design has evolved and developed over time, the basic semitrailer today looks remarkably like that of 30 years ago. Aerodynamic considerations have changed the trailer silhouette to some degree, and the need to lighten the vehicle has resulted in the use of different construction materials, but overall, trailers have tended to be left out in terms of development.
This report considers developments in trailer electrification over the next 10 years (2023-2032). It provides analysis for the adoption of four different (though not mutually exclusive) variants of electrification: shore power plus battery, mild solar, full solar, and electric axles (e-axles).
Guidehouse Insights’ findings point to a significant uptake of electric technologies in both the European and North American markets, which are, along with China, the world’s largest markets for semitrailers. Growth in other geographic areas will be more muted, with adoption expected to pick up toward the end of the forecast period.
Pages
49
Tables | Charts | Figures
48
Key Questions Addressed
Who Needs This Report
- Industry suppliers
- Equipment aggregators and OEMs
- Regulators and legislators
- Trucking fleets
- Investors
Table Of Contents
1. Executive Summary
2. Market Issues
2.1 Pallet Carriers
2.1.2 Non-Pallet Carriers
2.2 Technology Types
2.2.1 Shore Power Plus Battery
2.2.2 Mild Solar
2.2.3 Full Solar
2.2.4 E-Axles
2.3 Market Drivers
2.3.1 Decarbonization
2.3.2 Regulations
2.3.3 Range Extension for Tractor Units
2.3.4 Differentiated Diesel Taxes
2.3.5 Asset Tracking and Security
2.3.6 Detention Measurement and Management
2.3.7 Load Security and Compliance
2.3.8 Utilization Monitoring
2.3.9 Future-Proofing and Trade Cycle
2.4 Market Barriers
2.4.1 Tractor/Trailer Fleet Imbalance
2.4.2 Payload
2.4.3 Durability and Robustness
2.4.4 Trailer Lifecycle
2.5 Pricing
3. Competitive Landscape
3.1 Shore Power Plus Batter
3.2 Mild Solar
3.3 Full Solar
3.4 E-Axles
3.5 Business Model Development
4. Market Forecasts
4.1 Scope
4.2 Methodology
4.3 Limitations
4.4 Key Assumptions
4.5 Forecasts
4.6 Shore Power Plus Battery
4.6.1 Shore Power Plus Battery for Refrigerated Trailers
4.7 Mild Solar
4.7.1 Mild Solar for Refrigerated Trailers
4.8 Full Solar
4.8.1 Full Solar for Refrigerated Trailers
4.9 E-Axles
4.9.1 E-Axles for Refrigerated Trailers
5. Conclusions and Recommendations
5.1 Three Big Takeaways
5.2 Recommendations
5.2.1 Regulators and Legislators
5.2.2 Fleet Operators
5.2.3 Industry Suppliers
5.2.4 Investors
5.3 Conclusion
6. Acronym and Abbreviations
7. Table of Contents
8. Table of Charts and Figures
9.Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes
List of Charts and Figures
- Semitrailer Sales by Region, World Markets: 2023-2032
- Semitrailer Sales as a Percentage of the Global Market, World Markets: 2023-2032
- Refrigerated Trailer Sales by Region, World Markets: 2023-2032
- Refrigerated Trailer Sales as a Percentage of the Global Market, World Markets: 2024-2034
- Substitutive vs. Complementary Technology Adoption Rates, All Trailers, World Markets: 2023-2032
- Substitutive vs. Complementary Technology Adoption Rates, Refrigerated Trailers, World Markets: 2023-2032
- Shore Power Plus Battery Adoption, All Trailers, World Markets: 2023-2032
- Shore Power Plus Battery Adoption Rates, All Trailers, World Markets: 2023-2032
- Shore Power Plus Battery Adoption, Refrigerated Trailers, World Markets: 2023-2032
- Shore Power Plus Battery Adoption Rates, Refrigerated Trailers, World Markets: 2023-2032
- Mild Solar Adoption, All Trailers, World Markets: 2023-2032
- Mild Solar Adoption Rates, All Trailers, World Markets: 2023-2032
- Mild Solar Adoption, Refrigerated Trailers, World Markets: 2023-2032
- Mild Solar Adoption Rates, Refrigerated Trailers, World Markets: 2023-2032
- Full Solar Adoption, All Trailers, World Markets: 2023-2032
- Full Solar Adoption Rates, All Trailers, World Markets: 2023-2032
- Full Solar Adoption, Refrigerated Trailers, World Markets: 2023-2032
- Full Solar Adoption Rates, Refrigerated Trailers, World Markets: 2023-2032
- E-Axle Adoption, All Trailers, World Markets: 2023-2032
- E-Axle Adoption Rates, All Trailers, World Markets: 2023-2032
- E-Axle Adoption, Refrigerated Trailers, World Markets: 2023-2032
- E-Axle Adoption Rates, Refrigerated Trailers, World Markets: 2023-2032
- Regional Forecast Segments
List of Tables
- Semitruck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2023-2032
- Semitrailer Sales by Region, World Markets: 2023-2032
- Semitrailer Sales as a Percentage of the Global Market, World Markets: 2023-2032
- Refrigerated Trailer Sales by Region, World Markets: 2023-2032
- Refrigerated Trailer Sales as a Percentage of the Global Market, World Markets: 2023-2032
- Substitutive vs. Complementary Technology Adoption Rates, All Trailers, World Markets: 2023-2032
- Substitutive vs. Complementary Technology Adoption Rates, Refrigerated Trailers, World Markets: 2023-2032
- Substitutive vs. Complementary Technology Sales, All Trailers, World Markets: 2023-2032
- Substitutive vs. Complementary Technology Sales, Refrigerated Trailers, World Markets: 2023-2032
- Shore Power Plus Battery Adoption, All Trailers, World Markets: 2023-2032
- Shore Power Plus Battery Adoption Rates, All Trailers, World Markets: 2023-2032
- Shore Power Plus Battery Adoption, Refrigerated Trailers, World Markets: 2023-2032
- Shore Power Plus Battery Adoption Rates, Refrigerated Trailers, World Markets: 2023-2032
- Mild Solar Adoption, All Trailers, World Markets: 2023-2032
- Mild Solar Adoption Rates, All Trailers, World Markets: 2023-2032
- Mild Solar Adoption, Refrigerated Trailers, World Markets: 2023-2032
- Mild Solar Adoption Rates, Refrigerated Trailers, World Markets: 2023-2032
- Full Solar Adoption, All Trailers, World Markets: 2023-2032
- Full Solar Adoption Rates, All Trailers, World Markets: 2023-2032
- Full Solar Adoption, Refrigerated Trailers, World Markets: 2023-2032
- Full Solar Adoption Rates, Refrigerated Trailers, World Markets: 2023-2032
- E-Axle Adoption, All Trailers, World Markets: 2023-2032
- E-Axle Adoption Rates, All Trailers, World Markets: 2023-2032
- E-Axle Adoption, Refrigerated Trailers, World Markets: 2023-2032
- E-Axle Adoption Rates, Refrigerated Trailers, World Markets: 2023-2032
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