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1Q 2024

EV Geographic Forecast - North America

US and Canadian Light Duty Plug-in EV and EVSE Forecasts by State, Province, and Major Metropolitan Area: 2023-2032

Sales of plug-in EVs (PEVs) in North America have seen significant increases in 2022 and 2023. In the first three quarters of 2023, PEV sales exceeded the 2022 total and in the US, the third quarter of 2023 saw more than 300,000 PEVs sold for the first time in a quarter. PEVs are now a significant piece of the North American new vehicle market and poised to continue growing as the industry transitions to greater levels of electrification.

The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 revised the clean vehicle credit program starting in 2023, and will further strengthen PEV sales, especially as local battery production and new raw material supply chains, which are required to qualify for these credits, come online. Guidehouse Insights expects automakers to prioritize new models, and specifically battery EVs (BEVs). Despite automakers revising their production targets because of concerns about high interest rates and the volatility of battery raw material costs, several PEV models saw price cuts in 2023 as sales continued growing.

This Guidehouse Insights report analyzes EV technology innovations, incentives, policies, and vehicle availability to forecast PEV adoption in the US and Canada on national, state/province, and sub-state/province levels. The forecasts are driven by battery pack and technology innovations, fuel prices, model availability, and zero emissions vehicle (ZEV) mandates. They include passenger car and light truck breakouts in addition to powertrain breakouts by plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs) and BEVs. Forecasts for deployment of EV Supply Equipment (EVSE) is also included. EVSE deployments are segmented by technology—Level 1 (L1), Level 2 (L2), and DC fast chargers—and use cases, including fleet, market, multiuse dwellings (MUD), single-use dwelling (SUD), SUD-shared, and workplace.

Pages 54
Tables | Charts | Figures 67
  • What is the annual PEV share of the light duty vehicle market expected to be from 2023-2032?
  • What is the projected size of the North American PEV market through 2032?
  • What is the projected size of EVSE deployment in North America through 2032?
  • How will PEV sales perform by powertrain and vehicle class?
  • How will EVSE be deployed by use case location and technology?
  • Which states, provinces, and cities in North America are most likely to have the strongest penetration of PEVs and EVSE?
  • How should automakers react to increased PEV demand and sales?
  • Automobile OEM marketing managers
  • Vehicle aftermarket and service management
  • Tier One supplier marketing managers
  • EV charging equipment marketing managers
  • Electric utility management
  • State, province, and city urban planners
  • EV advocacy groups
  • Investor community

1.     Executive Summary

1.1    Introduction

1.2    Market Forecast

2.     Market Issues

2.1    Introduction

2.2    Market Drivers, Barriers, and Updates

2.2.1   Battery Pack Prices

2.2.2   Fuel Prices

2.2.3   Automotive OEM PEV Investment

2.2.4   Model Availability

2.2.5   PEV Policy Environment

2.2.6   EVSE Policy Environment

3.     Industry Value Chain

3.1    Competitive Landscape

3.2    Pictorial Representation of the Value Chain

3.3    Business Model Evolution

3.3.1   Onshoring Production

3.3.2   Supply Chain Consolidation

4.     Forecast Methodolgy

4.1    Vehicle Analytics and Simulation Tool Model Overview

4.1.1   Long-Run Market Share: Competition between Powertrains

4.1.2   Fueling Infrastructure and Vehicle Adoption

4.1.3   Vehicle Sales Forecast and Model Calibration

4.1.4   Geographic Specificity

4.2    The VAST Charger Siting Module Overview

5.     Market Forecasts

5.1    Introduction

5.2    US

5.2.1   PEV Forecasts

5.2.2   EVSE Forecasts

5.2.3   State Forecasts

5.2.4   Top 10 Metropolitan Areas

5.3    Canada

5.3.1   PEV Forecasts

5.3.2   EVSE Forecasts

5.3.3   Provincial Forecasts

5.3.4   Top 10 Metropolitan Areas

6.     Conclusions and Recommendations

6.1    Three Big Takeaways

6.2    Recommendations

6.2.1   Automakers

6.2.2   Governments

6.2.3   EVSE Companies and Manufacturers

7.     Acronym and Abbreviation List

8.     Table of Contents

9.     Table of Charts and Figures

10.   Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

  • LD PEV Sales by Powertrain and PEV Market Share, North America: 2023-2032
  • LD PEV Population and Share of LDV Population, US: 2023-2032
  • LD PEV Sales by Powertrain, US: 2023-2032
  • LD PEV Sales by Class, US: 2023-2032
  • Charge Points Installed by Technology, US: 2023-2032
  • Charge Points Installed by Use Case, US: 2023-2032
  • Top 10 States by LD PEV Sales, US: 2032
  • Top 10 States by Charge Points Installed, US: 2032
  • Top 10 Metropolitan Areas by LD PEV Sales, US: 2032
  • Top 10 Metropolitan Areas by Charge Points Installed, US: 2032
  • LD PEV Population and Share of LDV Population, Canada: 2023-2032
  • LD PEV Sales by Powertrain, Canada: 2023-2032
  • LD PEV Sales by Class, Canada: 2023-2032
  • Charge Points Installed by Technology, Canada: 2023-2032
  • Charge Points Installed by Use Case, Canada: 2023-2032
  • Top 5 Provinces by LD PEV Sales, Canada: 2032
  • Top 5 Provinces by Charge Points Installed, Canada: 2032
  • Top 10 Metropolitan Areas by LD PEV Sales, Canada: 2032
  • Top 10 Metropolitan Areas by Charge Points Installed, Canada: 2032
  • Pictorial Representation of the PEV Industry Value Chain
  • VAST Systems Dynamics Innovation Diffusion Approach
  • Example of LDV Charging Port Allocation
  • LDV Sales by State or Province, North America: 2023-2032
  • Annual LDV Population by State, North America: 2023-2032
  • LD PEV Sales by Powertrain, US: 2023-2032
  • LD PEV Sales by Powertrain, Canada: 2023-2032
  • LD PEV Sales by State or Province, North America: 2023-2032
  • LD BEV Sales by State or Province, North America: 2023-2032
  • LD PHEV Sales by State or Province, North America: 2023-2032
  • LD PEV Sales by Class, US: 2023-2032
  • LD PEV Sales by Class, Canada: 2023-2032
  • LD PEV Sales by Owner, US: 2023-2032
  • LD PEV Sales by Owner, Canada: 2023-2032
  • Top 50 Metropolitan Areas in 2032 by LD PEV Sales, US: 2023-2032
  • Top 10 Metropolitan Areas in 2032 by LD PEV Sales, Canada: 2023-2032
  • LD PEV Population by Powertrain, US: 2023-2032
  • LD PEV Population by Powertrain, Canada: 2023-2032
  • LD PEV Population by State or Province, North America: 2023-2032
  • LD BEV Population by State or Province, North America: 2023-2032
  • LD PHEV Population by State or Province, North America: 2023-2032
  • LD PEV Population by Class, US: 2023-2032
  • LD PEV Population by Class, Canada: 2023-2032
  • LD PEV Population by Owner, US: 2023-2032
  • LD PEV Population by Owner, Canada: 2023-2032
  • Top 50 Metropolitan Areas in 2032 by LD PEV Population, US: 2023-2032
  • Top 10 Metropolitan Areas in 2032 by LD PEV Population, Canada: 2023-2032
  • Charge Points by State or Province, North America: 2023-2032
  • Charge Points by Technology, US: 2023-2032
  • Charge Points by Technology, Canada: 2023-2032
  • Charge Points by Owner, US: 2023-2032
  • Charge Points by Owner, Canada: 2023-2032
  • Charge Points by Use Case, US: 2023-2032
  • Charge Points by Use Case, Canada: 2023-2032
  • Public Charge Points by State or Province, North America: 2023-2032
  • Public L2 Charge Points by State or Province, North America: 2023-2032
  • Public DC Charge Points by State or Province, North America: 2023-2032
  • Private Non-Fleet Charge Points by State or Province, North America: 2023-2032
  • Private Non-Fleet L1 Charge Points by State or Province, North America: 2023-2032
  • Private Non-Fleet L2 Charge Points by State or Province, North America: 2023-2032
  • Private Fleet Charge Points by State or Province, North America: 2023-2032
  • Private Fleet L2 Charge Points by State or Province, North America: 2023-2032
  • Private Fleet DC Charge Points by State or Province, North America: 2023-2032
  • Top 50 Metropolitan Areas in 2032 by Charge Points, US: 2023-2032
  • Top 10 Metropolitan Areas in 2032 by Charge Points, Canada: 2023-2032
  • EV Geographic Forecast Drivers and Assumptions, North America
  • Geographic Forecast Area Labels and Definitions
  • Sample of Recent and Upcoming BEVs with a Base MSRP under $50,000
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