All Reports
4Q 2021

VTOL and Drone Delivery

Market Analysis and Forecasts for Drone Delivery Systems

Drone delivery of packages, whether they contain coffee or lifesaving medications, has become a disruptive technology for remote and last-mile delivery. Unmanned cargo aircraft (UCA) have existed in small numbers since the mid-2010s, mostly as curiosities or as lifesaving technologies in Africa, Australia, and Asia Pacific. Since 2017, with the very first drone delivery, UCA have captured the interest of hundreds of companies globally, which are all rushing to bring the newest technologies to market.

UCA of nearly every size are being developed, from small multicopters with a useful payload of 1 lb to large all-weather aircraft capable of vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) and carrying a payload of 5,400 lbs. A diverse collection of manufacturers has created significant variation in airframe and software innovations, and all are eager to take the next big step into the market. Factors driving the development of UCA range from reductions in delivery time, use of ground-based delivery vehicles, and operating costs. Studies have shown that last-mile delivery costs can be reduced from approximately $10 to less than $1 by using UCA, spurring companies to invest heavily in UCA technology. With more than 200 companies building UCA, preparing for mass production, and working on government certification, the UCA market is primed for exponential growth by 2030. However, challenges to the market are numerous. Issues of range, limited payload capability, and government regulations are all factors affecting the feasibility of drone deliveries.

This Guidehouse Insights report provides an assessment of the global market for UCA, including technologies, market drivers, and challenges through 2030. Forecast delivery drone technologies in this report include segmentation by region, size, and UCA configuration.

Pages 57
Tables | Charts | Figures 43
  • What are the primary applications of remote delivery by drone?
  • Which companies are pushing this market forward—and why?
  • What are the key types and power supplies for these delivery drones?
  • What are the pros and cons of these technologies?
  • Which regions and applications are the best near-term bets for attractive ROI?
  • Drone manufacturing companies
  • Package delivery companies
  • Government agencies
  • Military agencies
  • NGOs
  • Investor community

1. Executive Summary

1.1   Introduction

1.2   Market Outlook

2. Market Issues

2.1   Introduction

2.2   Market Drivers

2.2.1   Reduced Delivery Time

2.2.2   Reduced Use of Road Vehicles

2.2.3   Reduced OPEX

2.3   Market Barriers

2.3.1   Weather

2.3.2   Limited Payload Capacity and Short Flight Times

2.3.3   Crowded Airspace

2.3.4   Rules and Regulations

3. Technology Issues

3.1   Introduction

3.1.1   Aircraft Size

3.1.1.1   Small UCA

3.1.1.2   Large UCA

3.1.2   Aircraft Power Source

3.1.2.1   Battery-Powered Propulsion

3.1.2.2   Internal Combustion Engine-Powered Propulsion

3.1.2.3   Hybrid Propulsion

3.1.3   Aircraft Configuration

3.1.3.1   Multicopter

3.1.3.2   Hybrid

3.1.3.3   Helicopter

3.1.3.4   Fixed-Wing

3.1.4   Levels of Automation

3.1.4.1   Level 0 – No Automation

3.1.4.2   Level 1 – Pilot Assistance

3.1.4.3   Level 2 – Partial Automation

3.1.4.4   Level 3 – Conditional Automation

3.1.4.5   Level 4 – High Automation

3.1.4.6   Level 5 – Full Automation

3.1.5   Sense and Avoid Levels

3.1.5.1   Sense and Alert

3.1.5.2   Sense and Avoid

3.1.5.3   Sense and Navigate

4. Key Industry Players

4.1   Introduction

4.2   Delivery Drone Manufacturers

4.2.1   Amazon

4.2.2   Bell Textron

4.2.3   Drone Delivery Canada

4.2.4   EHang

4.2.5   Matternet

4.2.6   Pipistrel

4.2.7   Sabrewing

4.2.8   Swoop Aero

4.2.9   Volansi

4.2.10   Wingcopter

4.2.11   Zipline

5. Market Forecasts

5.1  Methodology

5.2   Market Limitations

5.3   Key Assumptions

5.4   Market Forecasts

5.4.1   Global Delivery Drone Sales

5.4.1.1   Delivery Drone Revenue

5.4.1.2   Delivery Drone Sales by Drone Size

5.4.1.3   Delivery Drone Sales by Drone Type

5.4.2   North America

5.4.2.1   Delivery Drone Sales

5.4.2.2   Delivery Drone Sales Revenue

5.4.2.3   Delivery Drone Sales by Drone Size

5.4.2.4   Delivery Drone Sales by Drone Type

5.4.3   Europe

5.4.3.1   Delivery Drone Sales

5.4.3.2   Delivery Drone Sales Revenue

5.4.3.3   Delivery Drone Sales by Drone Size

5.4.3.4   Delivery Drone Sales by Drone Type

5.4.4   Asia Pacific

5.4.4.1   Delivery Drone Sales

5.4.4.2   Delivery Drone Sales Revenue

5.4.4.3   Delivery Drone Sales by Drone Size

5.4.4.4   Delivery Drone Sales by Drone Type

5.4.5   Latin America

5.4.5.1   Delivery Drone Sales

5.4.5.2   Delivery Drone Sales Revenue

5.4.5.3   Delivery Drone Sales by Drone Size

5.4.5.4   Delivery Drone Sales by Drone Type

5.4.6   Middle East & Africa

5.4.6.1   Delivery Drone Sales

5.4.6.2   Delivery Drone Sales Revenue

5.4.6.3   Delivery Drone Sales by Drone Size

5.4.6.4   Delivery Drone Sales by Drone Type

6. Conclusions and Recommendations

7. Acronym and Abbreviation List

8. Table of Contents

9. Table of Charts and Figures

10. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

  • Delivery Drone Sales by Region, World Markets: 2021-2030
  • Delivery Drone Sales Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2021-2030
  • Delivery Drone Sales by Drone Size, World Markets: 2021-2030
  • Delivery Drone Sales by Drone Type, World Markets: 2021-2030
  • Delivery Drone Sales by Units, North America: 2021-2030
  • Delivery Drone Sales Revenue, North America: 2021-2030
  • Delivery Drone Sales by Drone Size, North America: 2021-2030
  • Delivery Drone Sales by Drone Type, North America: 2021-2030
  • Delivery Drone Sales by Units, Latin America: 2021-2030
  • Delivery Drone Sales Revenue, Latin America: 2021-2030
  • Delivery Drone Sales by Drone Size, Latin America: 2021-2030
  • Delivery Drone Sales by Drone Type, Latin America: 2021-2030
  • Delivery Drone Sales by Units, Europe: 2021-2030
  • Delivery Drone Sales Revenue, Europe: 2021-2030
  • Delivery Drone Sales by Drone Size, Europe: 2021-2030
  • Delivery Drone Sales by Drone Type, Europe: 2021-2030
  • Delivery Drone Sales by Units, Asia Pacific: 2021-2030
  • Delivery Drone Sales Revenue, Asia Pacific: 2021-2030
  • Delivery Drone Sales by Drone Size, Asia Pacific: 2021-2030
  • Delivery Drone Sales by Drone Type, Asia Pacific: 2021-2030
  • Delivery Drone Sales by Units, Middle East & Africa: 2021-2030
  • Delivery Drone Sales Revenue, Middle East & Africa: 2021-2030
  • Delivery Drone Sales by Drone Size, Middle East & Africa: 2021-2030
  • Delivery Drone Sales by Drone Type, Middle East & Africa: 2021-2030
  • Condor Drone
  • Amazon Prime Air Drone
  • Matternet Delivery Drone
  • Pipistrel Nuuva V20 (Left) UCA and Nuuva V300 (Right)
  • Sabrewing Rhaegal RG-1
  • Volansi VOLY C10
  • Zipline Drone Dropping Package
  • Delivery Drone Sales by Region, World Markets: 2021-2030
  • Delivery Drone Sales Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2021-2030
  • Delivery Drone Sales by Drone Size, World Markets: 2021-2030
  • Delivery Drone Sales Revenue by Drone Size, World Markets: 2021-2030
  • Delivery Drone Sales by Drone Type, World Markets: 2021-2030
  • Delivery Drone Sales Revenue by Drone Type, World Markets: 2021-2030
  • Delivery Drone Sales by Region, Drones > 55 lbs, World Markets: 2021-2030
  • Delivery Drone Sales Revenue by Region, Drones > 55 lbs, World Markets: 2021-2030
  • Delivery Drone Sales by Region, Drones < 55 lbs, World Markets: 2021-2030
  • Delivery Drone Sales Revenue by Region, Drones < 55 lbs, World Markets: 2021-2030
  • Total Delivery Drone Sales by Region, Drones < 55 lbs, World Markets: 2021-2030
  • Total Delivery Drone Revenue by Region, Drones < 55 lbs, World Markets: 2021-2030
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