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1Q 2021

Robotaxi Services Overview

Level 4+ Automated Vehicles for Robotaxi, Cargo, and Consumer Use Cases and Ride-Hailing: Global Market Analysis and Forecasts

Ride-hailing has disrupted the taxi industry by taking substantial market share in all major markets where it has been established. Robotaxi services are the next stage of ride-hailing’s evolution, bringing driverless taxi fleets that provide on-demand mobility services. Robotaxis are driverless vehicles primarily providing on-demand mobility to passengers that are typically summoned with a ride-hailing app.

The shift to shared mobility has already begun; personal vehicle ownership is declining in many mature markets while society gets more comfortable with the robotaxi concept. The convenience of ride-hailing has been key to its widespread adoption in urban areas, and robotaxis will need to deliver on this convenience by providing strong service availability in urban areas with a seamless user experience. In many areas, urban residents who are poorly served by other transportation modes will have more mobility options with the introduction of robotaxis and will become better connected to the overall city mobility network.

This Guidehouse Insights report offers a strategic examination of the market, with a focus on key business and social drivers, technology issues, regulatory factors, and the competitive landscape. The report explores the potential robotaxi market; builds on Guidehouse Insights’ existing forecasts, including those for ride-hailing and automated driving; and evaluates how the market for these services are expected to evolve. This report features an examination of the key drivers for future demand, the challenges that the market will likely face, business and operating models, and an overview of leading pilots currently in operation. All major global regions are included, and the forecast period extends through 2030.

Pages 88
Tables | Charts | Figures 41
  • When will the first automated driving (AD) vehicles come to market?
  • How fast will annual sales grow for automated light duty consumer, cargo, and commercial vehicles?
  • What effect will robotaxis have on the global vehicle population?
  • How quickly will world regions adopt shared mobility?
  • Which market segments will see robotaxi adoption?
  • Fleet managers
  • Automotive OEMs
  • Automotive industry suppliers
  • Automated driving developers
  • Mobility and transportation service platform providers and operators
  • Insurance companies
  • Government agencies
  • City managers
  • Investor community

1. Executive Summary

1.1   Introduction

1.2   Market Forecast

2. Market Issues

2.1   Introduction

2.2   Market Drivers

2.2.1   Challenges of Urban Mobility

2.2.2   Restrictions for Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles

2.2.3   Decreasing Private Vehicle Ownership

2.3   Business Models

2.3.1   Business-to-Consumer

2.3.2   Business-to-Business

2.3.3   Peer-to-Peer

2.4   Operational Models

2.4.1   Ride-Hailing

2.4.2   Ridesharing

2.4.3   Carsharing

2.4.4   Microtransit

2.4.5   Mobility as a Service

2.5   Market Challenges

2.5.1   Urban Restrictions to Vehicle Access

2.5.2   Public Perception

2.5.3   Job Losses

2.5.4   Policy and Regulation

2.5.5   Profitability

2.5.6   Regional Challenges

3. Technology Issues

3.1   Introduction

3.2   AD Technologies

3.3   Vehicle Design

3.3.1   Layout

3.3.2   Accessibility

3.3.3   Vehicle Segments

3.3.4   Servicing and Maintenance

3.3.5   Infotainment

3.4   Safety

3.5   Security and Data Privacy

3.6   Powertrains and Charging

3.6.1   Electrification

3.6.2   Charging

3.7   The Robotaxi Service Platform

3.7.1   Fleet Management

3.7.2   Ride-Hailing Apps

3.7.3   Dispatch

3.7.4   Route Planning

3.7.5   Pricing and Payment

3.7.6   User Experience

3.8   Navigation

3.9   Vehicle Connectivity

3.9.1   V2X Communications

3.9.2   Telematics

4. Key Industry Players

4.1   Introduction

4.2   Leading Companies

4.2.1   Arrival

4.2.2   AutoX

4.2.3   Baidu

4.2.4   Bestmile

4.2.5   Cruise

4.2.6   Daimler

4.2.7   DiDi Chuxing

4.2.8   Ford

4.2.9   Grab

4.2.10   Local Motors

4.2.11   Lyft

4.2.12   May Mobility

4.2.13   Motional

4.2.14   Navya

4.2.15   Next Future Transportation

4.2.16   NIO

4.2.17   Ola Cabs

4.2.18   Pony.ai

4.2.19   Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi

4.2.20   Ridecell

4.2.21   Tesla

4.2.22   Toyota

4.2.23   Uber

4.2.24   VW Group

4.2.25   Volvo

4.2.26   Voyage

4.2.27   Waymo

4.2.28   WeRide

4.2.29   Yandex

4.2.30   Zoox

4.3   Summary of Key Robotaxi Pilots

4.3.1   Apollo  

4.3.2   Cruise

4.3.3   Lyft

4.3.4   Motional

4.3.5   Pony.ai

4.3.6   Uber

4.3.7   Waymo

4.3.8   Yandex

5. Market Forecasts

5.1   Introduction

5.2   The Ride-Hailing Market

5.3   Robotaxi Deployments

5.4   The Robotaxi Market

5.5   Robotaxi Utilization

6. Conclusions and Recommendations

7. Acronym and Abbreviation List

8. Table of Contents

9. Table of Charts and Figures

10. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes
  • Ride-Hailing Services Drivers by Region, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • Ride-Hailing Services Rides by Region, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • Ride-Hailing Services Revenue by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • Ride-Hailing Services PMT by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • Annual Robotaxi Deployments by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • Annual AD Level 4+ LDV Share by Use Case, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • Annual AD Level 4+ LDV Robotaxi Revenue by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • Robotaxi Share of AD LDV Level 4+ Revenue, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • Robotaxi Rides by Region, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • Robotaxi Share of Ride-Hailing Rides, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • Robotaxi PMT by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • Robotaxi Share of Ride-Hailing PMT, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • Robotaxi VMT by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • Annual LDV Unit Sales after COVID-19 Impact by Region, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • Annual AD Level 4+ LDV Deployments by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • Robotaxi Share of Ride-Hailing PMT by Region, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • London’s ULEZ
  • Grab Ride-Hailing Vehicle
  • Whim’s MaaS App
  • SAE Levels of Driving Automation
  • Cruise Origin
  • Waymo’s Passenger Information Display
  • BotRide Robotaxi-Hailing App

 

  • Annual LDV Unit Sales after COVID-19 Impact by Region, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • Annual AD Level 4+ LDV Deployments by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • Annual AD Level 4+ LDV Deployments for Cargo Use by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • Annual AD Level 4+ LDV Deployments for Robotaxi Use by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • Annual AD Level 4+ LDV Deployments for Consumer Use by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • Annual AD Level 4+ LDV Deployments Share by Use Case, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • Annual AD Level 4+ LDV Cargo Revenue by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • Annual AD Level 4+ LDV Robotaxi Revenue by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • Robotaxi Rides by Region, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • Robotaxi PMT by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • Robotaxi Share of Ride-Hailing PMT by Region, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • Robotaxi VMT by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • Robotaxi Share of Ride-Hailing Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • Ride-Hailing Services Revenue by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • Ride-Hailing Services Drivers by Region, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • Ride-Hailing Services Rides by Region, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • Annual Ride-Hailing Services PMT by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • Robotaxi Share of Ride-Hailing Rides by Region, World Markets: 2020-2030
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