All Reports
2Q 2024

Residential Heat Pumps in Cold Climates

Shipments and Revenue Estimates for Air to Air, Air to Water, and Ground-Source Heat Pumps in the Cold Climates of North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific

The market for residential heat pumps in cold climates is expected to grow considerably over the next decade. Technological advances, primarily in inverter-driven compressors and refrigerants, have enabled heat pumps to perform well in cold climates. Despite these advances, the adoption of heat pump technologies in cold climates has remained relatively low, apart from a few countries in Europe and Japan. However, as governments and stakeholder organizations pursue building decarbonization goals as part of broader climate initiatives, many are calling for the use of heat pumps in cold climates as a way to decarbonize heating. These efforts are likely to be the primary driver for heat pump adoption in cold climates over the next 10 years.

Three predominant heat pump technologies are on the market today and suitable for homes in cold climates: air to air heat pumps, air to water heat pumps, and ground-source heat pumps. Recent historical shipment data shows growing adoption of each of these technologies in cold climates in North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific. While air to air heat pumps have historically been the dominant technology in world markets, air to water heat pumps are becoming more common, particularly in Europe. A few emerging applications of heat pump technology for residential heating in cold climates are also showing growth potential, including hybrid heat pump systems, district heating, and shared geothermal arrays (also known as shared ground-source heat pumps).

This Guidehouse Insights report explores these market trends in detail along with market drivers and barriers specific to cold climates. The forecasts evaluate the estimated shipments and revenue of heat pump technologies in cold climates from 2024 to 2033. They are segmented by region (North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific) and technology type (air to air, air to water, and ground‑source heat pumps). The forecasts also provide detailed insights into the unique trends in shipments and revenue growth for each region, including explanations of potential reasons why different technologies appear to be growing faster than others in each region
Pages 41
Tables | Charts | Figures 26
  • To what extent will shipments of and revenue from heat pump technologies in cold climates around the world grow over the next decade?
  • What heat pump technologies (air to air, air to water, and ground-source) are expected to account for the greatest shipment and revenue growth in each region?
  • What are the primary drivers and barriers to heat pump adoption in cold climates?
  • What emerging heat pump technologies and applications show potential for growth in cold climates over the next decade?
  • How do the residential heat pump markets in cold climates differ between North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific?
  • Heat pump manufacturers
  • HVAC manufacturers
  • HVAC component manufacturers
  • National governments
  • State and local governments
  • Regional stakeholder organizations
  • Regional energy efficiency organizations
  • Electric utilities
  • Natural gas utilities
  • Building technology research organizations

1. Executive Summary

 2. Market Issues

2.1   Technology Trends for Cold Climates

2.1.1   Variable Speed Inverters

2.2   Common Heat Pump Technologies in Cold Climates

2.3   Emerging Applications

2.3.1   Hybrid Heat Pump Systems

2.3.2   Heat Pumps and District Heating

2.3.3   Shared Ground-Source Heat Pump System

2.4   Market Drivers

2.4.1   Government Policies and Market Transformation Efforts  

2.4.2   Fuel Costs and Scarcity

2.5   Barriers

2.5.1   Low Natural Gas Prices

2.5.2   Electric Service Upgrades

2.5.3   Insufficient Building Envelopes

2.5.4   Workforce and Customer Education

2.5.5   Emergency Replacements

3. Industry Value Chain

3.1   Residential HVAC Value Chain

3.2   Competitive Landscape

3.3   Growing Manufacturing Capacity

4. Market Forecasts

4.1   Methodology

4.2   World Markets

4.3   North America

4.4   Europe

4.5   Asia Pacific

5. Conclusions and Recommendations

5.1   Three Big Takeaways

5.2   Recommendations

5.2.1   HVAC Manufacturers

5.2.2   Electric Utilities

5.2.3   Natural Gas Utilities

5.2.4   Regulators

6. Acronym and Abbreviation List

7. Table of Contents

8. Table of Charts and Figures

9. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

  • Heat Pump Shipments in Cold Climates by Region, World Markets: 2024-2033
  • Heat Pump Shipments in Cold Climates by Technology Type, World Markets: 2024-2033
  • Heat Pump Revenue in Cold Climates by Region, World Markets: 2024-2033
  • Heat Pump Revenue in Cold Climates by Technology Type, World Markets: 2024-2033
  • Heat Pump Shipments in Cold Climates by Technology Type, North America: 2024-2033
  • Heat Pump Revenue in Cold Climates by Technology Type, North America: 2024-2033
  • Heat Pump Shipments in Cold Climates by Technology Type, Europe: 2024-2033
  • Heat Pump Revenues in Cold Climates by Technology Type, Europe: 2024-2033
  • Heat Pump Shipments in Cold Climates by Technology Type, Asia Pacific: 2024-2033
  • Heat Pump Revenue in Cold Climates by Technology Type, Asia Pacific: 2024-2033
  • Air Source Heat Pump Technologies and Configurations
  • Ground-Source Heat Pump Configurations
  • Shared Ground-Source Heat Pumps Compared to Individual Systems
  • Pictorial Representation of the Residential HVAC Value Chain
  • Heat Pump Shipments in Cold Climates by Region, World Markets: 2024-2033
  • Heat Pump Shipments in Cold Climates by Technology Type, World Markets: 2024-2033
  • Heat Pump Revenue in Cold Climates by Region, World Markets: 2024-2033
  • Heat Pump Revenue in Cold Climates by Technology Type, World Markets: 2024-2033
  • Heat Pump Shipments in Cold Climates by Technology Type, North America: 2024-2033
  • Heat Pump Revenue in Cold Climates by Technology Type, North America: 2024-2033
  • Heat Pump Shipments in Cold Climates by Technology Type, Europe: 2024-2033
  • Heat Pump Revenue in Cold Climates by Technology Type, Europe: 2024-2033
  • Heat Pump Shipments in Cold Climates by Technology Type, Asia Pacific: 2024-2033
  • Heat Pump Revenue in Cold Climates by Technology Type, Asia Pacific: 2024-2033
  • New Commercially Available Products Designed for Cold-Climate Markets
  • New Manufacturing Sites for Producing Cold-Climate Heat Pumps
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