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1Q 2023

Market Outlook for Sustainable Aviation Fuels

Processes, Production, Utilization, and Key Industry Players for SAF: Global Market Analysis and Forecasts

Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, commercial aviation accounted for over 2% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Among other solutions, industry stakeholders are looking to reduce a significant share of these GHGs by pursuing three alternative fuel strategies: sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), hydrogen, and electricity. Of these, SAF, also known as sustainable drop-in fuel, is the most developed and economically feasible today; the others have yet to meet the requirements for long-haul flights, limiting their effectiveness. SAF use typically generates 60% to 95% fewer GHG emissions compared with a fossil fuel reference value of 89 grams of CO2 equivalent per megajoule. Additionally, SAF has been tested in long-haul flights and can be incorporated into existing fuel infrastructure and engines without costly modifications.

SAF markets are driven by multiple forces. Governments are moving to incentivize and mandate SAF use through policies such as the European Union’s ReFuelEU proposal, which would set an SAF target of 63% market share by 2050, and the US’s SAF Grand Challenge, which aims for 3 billion gallons of SAF production per year by 2030. Corporate environmental, social, and governance initiatives are giving airlines strong indications of market demand and value around decarbonization. Additionally, while standards currently limit blending to 50% for some SAF processes (and to much lower levels for others), jet engine manufacturers are in the process of certifying that all future engines can operate on 100% pure SAF. As such, the industry is poised for significant growth through 2035.

However, significant challenges must be addressed. SAF production is considerably more expensive than conventional jet fuel production—2 to 10 times the cost—and the two are unlikely to reach parity within the forecast period. A substantial component of this cost is tied to the immature distribution system for SAF, which is largely produced by companies not connected to established infrastructure such as pipelines.

Pages 37
Tables | Charts | Figures 26
  • What are the processes and capacities of SAF production?
  • Which companies and countries are advancing this market?
  • What are the constraints on the industry and how can they be overcome?
  • What are the expected expenditures for this market by 2035?
  • What new technologies and carbon reduction mandates are driving this market?
  • Industry bodies
  • Jet fuel manufacturers
  • Aircraft manufacturers
  • Airports
  • Airlines
  • Government agencies

1. Executive Summary

1.1    Introduction

1.2    Scope

1.3    Market Outlook

2. Market Position

2.1    Introduction

2.2    Market Drivers

2.2.1   Pollution Reduction Mandates and SAF Production Incentives

2.2.1.1    Europe

2.2.1.2   North America

2.2.1.3    Asia Pacific

2.2.2   Industry Participation

2.2.3   Carbon Pricing

2.3    Market Challenges

2.3.1   SAF Cost

2.3.2   Feedstock Capacity

2.3.3   Regulations and Approval Process

3. Technology Overview

3.1    Introduction

3.2    Standardization Process

3.3    SAF Production Processes

4. Key Industry Players

4.1    Introduction

4.1.1   Aemetis

4.1.2   DG Fuels

4.1.3   Fulcrum BioEnergy

4.1.4   Gevo

4.1.5   LanzaJet

4.1.6   Neste

4.1.7   Oriental Energy

4.1.8   Preem

4.1.9   PT Pertamina

4.1.10  Repsol

4.1.11  SkyNRG

4.1.12  Shell

4.1.13  TotalEnergies

4.1.14  World Energy

5. Market Forecasts

5.1    Scope

5.2    Methodology

5.3    Key Assumptions

5.4    Results

5.4.1   SAF Utilization

5.4.2   Production by Technology

5.4.3   Production by Region

6. Conclusions and Recommendations

7. Acronym and Abbreviation List

8. Table of Contents

9. Table of Charts and Figures

10. Scope of Study

11. Sources, Methodology & Notes

  • SAF Revenue by Production Process, World Markets: 2023-2035
  • SAF Revenue at Key Points by Scenario, World Markets: 2023-2035
  • SAF Utilization by Scenario, World Markets: 2023-2035
  • SAF Revenue by Scenario, World Markets: 2023-2035
  • SAF Production by Region, World Markets: 2023-2027
  • SAF Utilization by Production Process, World Markets: 2023-2035
  • SAF Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2023-2027
  • SAF Revenue by Technology, World Markets: 2023-2035
  • SAF Revenue by Scenario, World Markets 2023-2035
  • SAF Utilization, World Markets: 2023-2035
  • SAF Revenue, World Markets: 2023-2035
  • SAF Utilization by Production Process, World Markets: 2023-2035
  • SAF Revenue by Production Process, World Markets: 2023-2035
  • SAF Utilization by Scenario, World Markets: 2023-2035
  • SAF Revenue by Scenario, World Markets: 2023-2035
  • SAF Production by Region, World Markets: 2023-2027
  • SAF Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2023-2027
  • HEFA Production Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2023-2027
  • CHJ Production Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2023-2027
  • ATJ Production Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2023-2027
  • FT Production Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2023-2027
  • E-fuel Production Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2023-2027
  • SAF Production Processes
  • Baseline Fuel Price Forecasts
  • Aggressive Fuel Price Forecasts
  • Conservative Fuel Price Forecasts
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Sustainable Aviation Fuel: Incentives, Mandates, and Growing Demand