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2Q 2021

Market Data: Light Duty EVs

Global Forecasts of Battery Electric and Plug-In Hybrid Vehicles and Supporting Charging Infrastructure in Light Duty Vehicle Markets: 2020-2030

Since 2008, light duty plug-in EVs (PEVs) have been continually progressing toward lower costs and higher performance. Much of this progression has been driven by battery technology innovations with much cheaper and more reliable batteries than when the first modern PEVs from introduced. Since 2015, purchase costs for battery EVs (BEVs) have dropped by roughly 30% while range has increased by more than 40%. Simultaneously, charging speeds have jumped from 3.3 kW-7.2 kW for alternating current (AC) charging ports and from 50 kW-70 kW for direct current (DC) charging ports of first generation PEVs to 11 kW-22 kW and 100 kW-350 kW of the upcoming PEV generation, respectively.

The improved cost and performance of PEVs has catapulted the technology from an adaptation of existing automaker model lines and venture of daring startups to the future standard. As such, multiple automakers including Jaguar, MINI, Volvo, and General Motors (GM) have announced plans to fully transition to BEVs between 2025 and 2035. More automakers are likely to join as governments worldwide ramp regulations to encourage the industry’s continued progress toward zero emissions.

This Guidehouse Insights report provides an outlook on sales of light duty (LD) EV technologies, including BEVs, PHEVs, and supporting charging infrastructure. It includes segmentations of the vehicle market by passenger vehicles (PVs) and light commercial vehicles (LCVs) and by charging infrastructure private charging, destination charging, and fast charging services. Forecasts extend to 2030 and historic data on sales of all technologies is provided back to 2015 for all major regional markets including North America, Europe, China, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Asia Pacific, India, Rest of Asia Pacific, Latin America, and Middle East & Africa.

Pages 53
Tables | Charts | Figures 50
  • How have EV technologies changed over time?
  • How are EV technologies likely to change into the future?
  • How are regulatory forces shaping EV markets?
  • What factors are limiting the EV technologies and markets?
  • How are EVs affecting charging infrastructure markets?
  • What brands are leading EV markets?
  • What are the dynamics of the two main LDV segments, PV and LCV?
  • How are the dynamics of PV and LCV markets influencing EV demand?
  • What are the costs of EV technologies, and how are they likely to change over time?
  • EV component manufacturers and suppliers
  • EV charging equipment manufacturers
  • Energy service companies (ESCOs)
  • Automotive OEMs
  • Utilities
  • Government agencies
  • Industry associations
  • Investor community

1. Executive Summary

1.1   Introduction

1.2   Market Outlook

2. Market Issues

2.1   Light Duty EVs

2.1.1   PHEVs

2.1.2   BEVs

2.2   Applications

2.2.1   PVs

2.2.2   LCVs

2.3   Market Drivers

2.3.1   Government Policy

2.3.1.1   Efficiency Standards

2.3.1.2   ZEV Mandates

2.3.1.3   ICE Bans

2.3.1.4   Fuel Carbon Intensity Standards

2.4   Market Challenges

2.4.1   Costs

2.4.2   Range and Charging Speed

2.4.3   Regional Availability and Awareness

3. Market Forecasts

3.1   Scope

3.2   Methodology

3.3   Limitations

3.4   Key Assumptions

3.5   Results

3.5.1   The Overall LDV Market

3.5.2   PHEVs

3.5.3   BEVs

3.5.4   Infrastructure

3.5.4.1   Private Charge Points

3.5.4.2   Destination Charge Points

3.5.4.3   Fast Charge Points

3.5.5   Revenue

4. Conclusions and Recommendations

5. Acronym and Abbreviation List

6. Table of Contents

7. Table of Charts and Figures

8. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

  • LD e-Mobility Revenue by Technology, World Markets: 2020, 2025, 2030
  • Change in PHEV Top Five Best Seller Metrics, World Markets: 2015-2020
  • Change in BEV Top Five Best Seller Metrics, World Markets: 2015-2020
  • PV Market Share by Vehicle Type, World Markets: 2010, 2015, 2020
  • Share of PV Brands Selling BEVs and PHEVs, World Markets: 2010, 2015, 2020
  • Share of LCV Brands Selling BEVs and PHEVs, World Markets: 2010, 2015, 2020
  • LDV Sales by Type, World Markets: 2020, 2025, 2030
  • LDV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2020, 2025, 2030
  • PHEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2020
  • Share of PHEV Market by 2020 Leading Brands, World Markets: 2015-2020
  • PHEV Sales by Segment, World Markets: 2020, 2025, 2030
  • PHEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2020, 2025, 2030
  • BEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2020
  • Share of BEV Market by 2020 Leading Brands, World Markets: 2015-2020
  • BEV Sales by Segment, World Markets: 2020, 2025, 2030
  • BEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2020, 2025, 2030
  • Private Charge Point Sales by Region, World Markets: 2020, 2025, 2030
  • Destination Charge Point Sales by Region, World Markets: 2020, 2025, 2030
  • Fast Charge Point and Swap Station Sales by Region, World Markets: 2020, 2025, 2030
  • PEV Technology Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2020, 2025, 2030
  • PEV Technology Revenue by Type, World Markets: 2020, 2025, 2030
  • Ample Battery Swap Station alongside PEVs from Multiple OEMs
  • Tesla’s Structural Battery Vision
  • PV Types (Left to Right: Car, Crossover/SUV, Minivan)
  • LCV Types (Left to Right: Pickup Truck, Van)
  • Passenger Car Fuel Economy Normalized to Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) Standards
  • Regional Forecast Segmentations
  • LDV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • PV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • LCV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • BEV Sales by Type and Region, World Markets: 2015-2020
  • PHEV Sales by Type and Region, World Markets: 2015-2020
  • LD Charge Points by Type and Region, World Markets: 2015-2020
  • PEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • BEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • PV BEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • LCV BEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • PHEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • PV PHEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • LCV PHEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • Charge Point Sales for LD PEVs by Region, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • Fast Charge Point Sales by Region, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • Destination Charge Point Sales by Region, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • Private Charge Point Sales by Region, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • PEV Technology Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • BEV Sales Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • PHEV Sales Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • Charge Point Development Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • Upcoming PEV Pickup Trucks
  • Major Policies Benefiting PEVs by Region
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