4Q-2021

Market Data: EV Geographic Forecast – North America

US and Canadian Light Duty Plug-In EV Forecasts by Province, State, and Major Metropolitan Area

The economic impacts of COVID-19 led to an unprecedented 16% decline in global light duty (LD) vehicle sales in 2020. However, in the same year, plug-in EVs (PEVs) achieved record sales – growing over 40% from 2019 levels. Sales data from the first half of 2021 also shows an acceleration of electrification trends in North America. In the US, nearly as many PEVs were sold in the first half of 2021 as the entire 2020 sales total. As a result, 2021 will likely go down in history as an inflection point for the PEV industry.

A variety of factors are contributing to this new reality for the automotive industry, including a COVID-19-related breakthrough in consumer acceptance of EVs, a shifting policy environment that aggressively favors PEVs over gas-powered vehicles, the introduction of several new popular EV models, and increased automaker investment and prioritization of EV technologies. According to Guidehouse Insights, annual unit sales of PEVs in North America are expected to grow from roughly 599,000 in 2021 to more than 6.3 million vehicles by 2030 at a 30.0% compound annual growth rate (CAGR).

This Guidehouse Insights report analyzes EV technology innovations, incentives, policies, and vehicle availability to forecast PEV adoption in the US and Canada on national, state/province, and substate/province levels. Guidehouse Insights employs the Guidehouse Vehicle Analytics Simulation Tool (VAST) to generate its forecasts. Segmentation of the PEV forecasts include passenger car (PC) and light truck (LT) breakouts, as well as powertrain breakout by plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs) and battery EVs (BEVs).

Pages 34
Tables | Charts | Figures 30
  • Which states, provinces, and cities in North America are most likely to have the strongest penetration of plug-in EVs (PEVs)?
  • What is the annual PEV market share of the LDV market expected to be in 2030?
  • What is the projected size of the North American PEV market through 2030?
  • Which powertrains and vehicle classes will likely achieve the most PEV sales?
  • How are markets expected to respond to increased PEV capability?
  • How will additional zero emissions vehicle (ZEV) policies likely affect PEV sales and population?
  • What are the impacts of state and regional market regulations and interventions on the market?
  • Automobile OEM marketing managers
  • Vehicle aftermarket and service management
  • Tier One supplier marketing managers
  • EV charging equipment marketing managers
  • Electric utility management
  • State, province, and city urban planners
  • EV advocacy groups
  • Investor community

1. Executive Summary

1.1      Introduction

1.2      Market Forecasts

2. Market Issues 

2.1      Introduction

2.2      Market Drivers and Updates

2.2.1     Battery Pack Prices

2.2.2     Fuel Prices

2.2.3     Automotive OEM PEV Investment

2.2.4     Model Availability

2.2.5     Policy Environment

3. Methodology  

3.1      Vehicle Analytics and Simulation Tool Model Overview

3.1.1     Long-Run Market Share—Competition between Powertrains

3.1.2     Fueling Infrastructure and Vehicle Adoption

3.1.3     Vehicle Sales Forecast and Model Calibration

3.1.4     Geographic Specificity

4. Market Forecasts

4.1      Introduction

4.2      US

4.2.1     PEV Sales by Powertrain

4.2.2     PEV Sales by Vehicle Class

4.2.3     State Forecasts

4.2.4     Top 10 Metropolitan Areas

4.3      Canada

4.3.1     PEV Sales by Powertrain

4.3.2     PEV Sales by Vehicle Class

4.3.3     Provincial Forecasts

4.3.4     Top 10 Metropolitan Areas

5. Conclusions and Recommendations

6. Acronym and Abbreviation Lis

7. Table of Content

8. Table of Charts and Figures

9. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

  • LD PEV Sales by Powertrain and PEV Market Share, North America: 2021-2030
  • LD PEV Population and Market Share of the LDV Market, US: 2021-2030
  • LD PEV Sales by Powertrain, US: 2021-2030
  • LD PEV Sales by Class, US: 2021-2030
  • Top 10 States by LD PEV Sales, US: 2030
  • Top 10 Metropolitan Areas by LD PEV Sales, US: 2030
  • LD PEV Population and Market Share of the LDV Market, Canada: 2021-2030
  • LD PEV Sales by Powertrain, Canada: 2021-2030
  • LD PEV Sales by Class, Canada: 2021-2030
  • Top 5 Provinces by LD PEV Sales, Canada: 2030
  • Top 10 Metropolitan Areas by LD PEV Sales, Canada: 2030
  • VAST Systems Dynamics Innovation Diffusion Approach
  • T LDV Sales by State or Province, North America: 2021-2030
  • LDV Population by State or Province, North America: 2021-2030
  • LD PEV Sales by Powertrain, US: 2021-2030
  • LD PEV Sales by Powertrain, Canada: 2021-2030
  • LD BEV Sales by State or Province, North America: 2021-2030
  • LD PHEV Sales by State or Province, North America: 2021-2030
  • LD PEV Sales by Class, US: 2021-2030
  • LD PEV Sales by Class, Canada: 2021-2030
  • Top 50 Metropolitan Areas by LD PEV Sales, US: 2021-2030
  • Top 10 Metropolitan Areas by LD PEV Sales, Canada: 2021-2030
  • LD PEV Population by Powertrain, US: 2021-2030
  • LD PEV Population by Powertrain, Canada: 2021-2030
  • LD BEV Population by State or Province, North America: 2021-2030
  • LD PHEV Population by State or Province, North America: 2021-2030
  • LD PEV Population by Class, US: 2021-2030
  • LD PEV Population by Class, Canada: 2021-2030
  • Top 50 Metropolitan Areas by LD PEV Population, US: 2021-2030
  • Top 10 Metropolitan Areas by LD PEV Population, Canada: 2021-2030
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