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4Q 2022

Market Data: EV Geographic Forecast - North America

US and Canadian Light Duty Plug-in EV Forecasts by State, Province, and Major Metropolitan Area: 2022-2031

Sales of plug-in EVs (PEVs) in North America saw significant increases in 2021 and 2022. The US market more than doubled (up 105%) from 2020 to 2021 against an overall market increase of 3.6%, while sales in first three quarters of 2022 have already surpassed the 2021 total. Canadian sales showed similar gains, with yearly PEV sales up 85% in 2021 versus 7.9% for the total light duty vehicle (LDV) market. PEVs are now a significant piece of the North American new vehicle market and poised to continue growing as the industry transitions to greater levels of electrification. The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 will bring a revised clean vehicle credit program starting in 2023 that will provide a tailwind to PEV sales, especially as local battery production and new raw material supply chains, which are required to qualify for these credits, come online.

New cars and trucks in North America are still limited by supply, and the automotive chip shortage is expected to continue into 2023. Guidehouse Insights expects new models, and specifically PEVs, to be prioritized by automakers and impacted to a lesser degree. Inflation and volatility of battery raw material costs are an increasing concern, leading many automakers to raise prices on PEV models midyear in 2022 in response.

The 2022 Market Data: EV Geographic Forecast – North America report by Guidehouse Insights analyzes EV technology innovations, incentives, policies, and vehicle availability to forecast PEV adoption in the US and Canada on national, state/province, and sub-state/province levels. The forecasts are driven by battery pack and technology innovations, fuel prices, model availability, and zero emissions vehicle (ZEV) mandates. The forecasts include passenger car and light truck breakouts in addition to powertrain breakouts by plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs) and battery EVs (BEVs).

Pages 35
Tables | Charts | Figures 36
  • What is the annual PEV share of the LDV market expected to be from 2022-2031?
  • What is the projected size of the North American PEV market through 2031?
  • How will PEV sales perform by powertrain and vehicle class?
  • Which states, provinces, and cities in North America are most likely to have the strongest penetration of PEVs?
  • How should automakers react to increased PEV demand and sales?
  • Automobile OEM marketing managers
  • Vehicle aftermarket and service management
  • Tier One supplier marketing managers
  • EV charging equipment marketing managers
  • Electric utility management
  • State, province, and city urban planners
  • EV advocacy groups
  • Investor community

1. Executive Summary

1.1    Introduction

1.2    Market Forecasts

2. Market Issues

2.1    Introduction

2.2    Market Drivers and Updates

2.2.1   Battery Pack Prices

2.2.2   Fuel Prices

2.2.3   Automotive OEM PEV Investment

2.2.4   Model Availability

2.2.5   Policy Environment

3. Methodology

3.1    Vehicle Analytics and Simulation Tool Model Overview

3.1.1   Long-Run Market Share—Competition between Powertrains

3.1.2   Fueling Infrastructure and Vehicle Adoption

3.1.3   Vehicle Sales Forecast and Model Calibration

3.1.4   Geographic Specificity

4. Market Forecasts

4.1    Introduction

4.2    US

4.2.1   PEV Sales by Powertrain

4.2.2   PEV Sales by Vehicle Class

4.2.3   State Forecasts

4.2.4   Top 10 Metropolitan Areas

4.3    Canada

4.3.1   PEV Sales by Powertrain

4.3.2   PEV Sales by Vehicle Class

4.3.3   Provincial Forecasts

4.3.4   Top 10 Metropolitan Areas

5. Conclusions and Recommendations

6. Acronym and Abbreviation List

7. Table of Contents

8. Table of Charts and Figures

9. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

  • LD PEV Sales by Powertrain and PEV Market Share, North America: 2022-2031
  • LD PEV Population and Share of LDV Population, US: 2022-2031
  • LD PEV Sales by Powertain, US: 2022-2031
  • LD PEV Sales by Class, US: 2022-2031
  • Top 10 States by LED PEV Sales, US: 2031
  • Top 10 Metropolitan Areas by LED PEV Sales, US: 2031
  • LD PEV Population and Share of LDV Population, Canada: 2022-2031
  • LD PEV Sales by Powertain, Canada: 2022-2031
  • LD PEV Sales by Class, Canada: 2022-2031
  • Top 5 Provinces by LD PEV Sales, Canada: 2031
  • Top 10 Metropolitan Areas by LED PEV Sales, Canada: 2031
  • Top 10 Metropolitan Areas by LD PEV Sales, US: 2031
  • PEV Sales by Class, Canada: 2022-2031
  • Top 10 Metropolitan Areas by LD PEV Sales, Canada: 2031
  • VAST Systems Dynamics Innovation Diffusion Approach
  • LDV Sales by State or Province, North America: 2022-2031
  • LDV Population by State or Province, North American 2022-2031
  • LD PEV Sales by Powertrain, US: 2022-2031
  • LD PEV Sales by Powertrain, Canada: 2022-2031
  • LD BEV Sales by State or Province, North America: 2022-2031
  • LD PHEV Sales by State or Province, North America: 2022-2031
  • LD PEV Sales by Class, US: 2022-2031
  • LD PEV Sales by Class, Canada: 2022-2031
  • Top 50 Metropolitan Areas by LD PEV Sales, US: 2022-2031
  • Top 10 Metropolitan Areas by LD PEV Sales, Canada: 2022-2031
  • LD PEV Population by Powertrain, US: 2022-2031
  • LD PEV Population by Powertrain, Canada: 2022-2031
  • LDV BEV Population by State or Province, North America: 2022-2031
  • LDV PHEV Population by State or Province, North America: 2022-2031
  • LD PEV Population by Class, US: 2022-2031
  • LD PEV Population by Class, Canada: 2022-2031
  • Top 50 Metropolitan Areas by LD PEV Population, US: 2022-2031
  • Top 10 Metropolitan Areas by LD PEV Population, Canada: 2022-2031
  • EV Geographic Forecast Drivers and Assumptions, North America
  • Geographic Forecast Area Labels and Definitions
  • Sample of Upcoming BEVs with a Base MSRP under $50,000
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