All Reports
2Q 2021

Market Data: Automated Vehicles

Global Consumer and Commercial Market Forecasts: 2021-2030

Although the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020 and 2021 affected countless industries around the world, it had relatively little impact on the automated vehicle (AV) business. Following a brief interruption in on-road testing during the initial wave of lockdowns in the first half of 2020, companies adapted their procedures, and by the second half of 2021, most were back on the road. Technology development does not appear to have been significantly delayed thanks to the widespread use of simulation.

Although the pace of development has continued, the business side has seen a number of changes with announced program delays for commercial launches and continued consolidation in the industry as several automated driving system (ADS) developers struggle to raise new capital. Some of the smaller players shut their doors while others of various sizes found buyers. Notably, ride-hailing leaders Uber and Lyft both ended internal ADS development and sold their groups to Aurora and Toyota, respectively. Of those remaining in the sector, the trend of shifting to more emphasis on goods delivery has continued, as more consumers have shifted to deliveries of everything from meals to household goods during the pandemic.

This Guidehouse Insights report provides projections of the size of global and regional markets for light duty consumer and commercial vehicles with highly automated driving capability. Baseline, conservative, and aggressive scenarios for market deployment are included as well as market splits among consumer, robotaxi, and goods delivery vehicles through 2030. Baseline forecasts for partial AVs are also included.

Pages 39
Tables | Charts | Figures 58
  • When are the first AVs expected to come to market?
  • How fast will annual sales likely grow for automated light duty consumer and commercial vehicles?
  • How quickly will world regions adopt AVs?
  • Which market segments are anticipated to see automated driving adoption?
  • How will the automated vehicle market likely be divided between passengers and goods delivery?
  • Fleet managers
  • Automotive OEMs
  • Automotive industry suppliers
  • Automated driving developers
  • Mobility and transportation service platform providers and operators
  • Insurance companies
  • Government agencies
  • City managers
  • Investor community

1. Executive Summary

1.1   Market Overview

1.2   Scope

1.3   Market Forecasts

2. Data Assumptions

2.1   Overall Forecast Modeling

2.1.1   Automated Vehicle Taxonomy

2.1.1.1   ADAS

2.1.1.2   AD Systems

2.1.1.3   Low Speed Automated Delivery Vehicles

2.1.1.4   Full-Speed Automated Delivery Vehicles

2.1.1.5   Low Speed Automated Shuttles

2.1.1.6   Full-Speed Robotaxis

2.1.1.7   Automated Consumer Passenger Vehicles

2.1.1.8   Automated Transit Buses

2.1.1.9   Automated Heavy Duty Trucks

2.2   Consumer Vehicle Market

2.3   Commercial Vehicle Market

3. Market Forecasts

3.1   Introduction

3.2   Total AD Market

3.2.1   Global Forecasts

3.2.1.1   ADS Deployments and Market Penetration

3.2.1.2   Commercial Services Vehicles

3.2.1.2.1   Cargo and Goods Delivery Vehicles

3.2.1.2.2   Passenger-Carrying Robotaxis

3.2.2   Regional Forecasts

3.2.2.1   North America

3.2.2.2   Europe

3.2.2.3   China

3.2.2.4   India

3.2.2.5   Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Asia Pacific

3.2.2.6   Rest of Asia Pacific

3.2.2.7   Latin America

3.2.2.8   Middle East & Africa

4. Conclusions and Recommendations

5. Acronym and Abbreviation List

6. Table of Contents

7. Table of Charts and Figures

8. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

  • Annual LDV Unit Sales by Region After COVID-19 Impact, World Markets: 2021-2030
  • Annual AD L4+ LDV Deployments by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2021-2030
  • Annual LD AD Vehicle Deployments by Level, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2021-2030
  • Annual AD L4+ LDV Deployments by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2021-2030
  • Annual AD L4+ LDV Deployments by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2021-2030
  • Annual LD AD Vehicle Deployments by Use Case, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2021-2030
  • Annual AD L4+ LDV Cargo Revenue by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2021-2030
  • Annual AD L4+ LDV Robotaxi Revenue by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2021-2030
  • Annual AD L4+ LDV Deployments by Scenario, North America: 2021-2030
  • Annual AD L4+ LDV Deployments by Scenario, Europe: 2021-2030
  • Annual AD L4+ LDV Deployments by Scenario, China: 2021-2030
  • Annual AD L4+ LDV Deployments by Scenario, India: 2021-2030
  • Annual AD L4+ LDV Deployments by Scenario, OECD Asia Pacific: 2021-2030
  • Annual AD L4+ LDV Deployments by Scenario, Rest of Asia Pacific: 2021-2030
  • Annual AD L4+ LDV Deployments by Scenario, Latin America: 2021-2030
  • Annual AD L4+ LDV Deployments by Scenario, Middle East & Africa: 2021-2030
  • Annual AD L4+ LDV Deployments Penetration by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2021-2030
  • SAE J3016 Levels of Driving Automation
  • Examples of ADAS
  • Waymo L4 Robotaxi Prototype
  • Yandex Rover Low Speed Automated Delivery Vehicle
  • Gatik Full-Speed Automated Delivery Vehicles
  • Baidu Low Speed Automated Shuttle
  • Zoox Full-Speed Robotaxi
  • TuSimple Automated Heavy Duty Truck
  • Annual LDV Unit Sales by Region, World Markets: 2021-2030
  • Annual AD L4+ LDV Deployments by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2021-2030
  • Annual AD L4+ LDV Deployments Penetration by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2021-2030
  • Annual AD L4+ LDV Cargo Deployments by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2021-2030
  • Annual AD L4+ LDV Robotaxi Deployments by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2021-2030
  • Annual AD L4+ LDV Consumer Deployments by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2021-2030
  • Annual AD L4+ LDV Cargo Revenue by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2021-2030
  • Annual AD L4+ LDV Robotaxi Revenue by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2021-2030
  • Annual AD L4+ LDV Cargo VMT by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2021-2030
  • Annual AD L4+ LDV Robotaxi VMT by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2021-2030
  • Annual AD L2 LDV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2021-2030
  • Annual AD L3 LDV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2021-2030
  • Annual AD Level 0-1 LDV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2021-2030
  • Annual AD L4+ LDV Deployments by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2021-2030
  • Annual AD L4+ LDV Deployments Penetration by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2021-2030
  • Annual AD L4+ LDV Deployments by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2021-2030
  • Annual AD L4+ LDV Deployments Penetration by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2021-2030
  • Annual AD L4+ LDV Deployments by Scenario, North America: 2021-2030
  • Annual AD L4+ LDV Deployments Penetration by Scenario, North America: 2021-2030
  • Annual AD L4+ LDV Deployments by Scenario, Europe: 2021-2030
  • Annual AD L4+ LDV Deployments Penetration by Scenario, Europe: 2021-2030
  • Annual AD L4+ LDV Deployments by Scenario, China: 2021-2030
  • Annual AD L4+ LDV Deployments Penetration by Scenario, China: 2021-2030
  • Annual AD L4+ LDV Deployments by Scenario, OECD Asia Pacific: 2021-2030
  • Annual AD L4+ LDV Deployments Penetration by Scenario, OECD Asia Pacific: 2021-2030
  • Annual AD L4+ LDV Deployments by Scenario, Rest of Asia Pacific: 2021-2030
  • Annual AD L4+ LDV Deployments Penetration by Scenario, Rest of Asia Pacific: 2021-2030
  • Annual AD L4+ LDV Deployments by Scenario, Latin America: 2021-2030
  • Annual AD L4+ LDV Deployments Penetration by Scenario, Latin America: 2021-2030
  • Annual AD L4+ LDV Deployments by Scenario, India: 2021-2030
  • Annual AD L4+ LDV Deployments Penetration by Scenario, India: 2021-2030
  • Annual AD L4+ LDV Deployments by Scenario, Middle East & Africa: 2021-2030
  • Annual AD L4+ LDV Deployments Penetration by Scenario, Middle East & Africa: 2021-2030
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