2Q 2020

Market Data: Automated Driving Vehicles

Global Consumer and Commercial Market Forecasts: 2020-2030

Although 2020 has long been projected as the turning point when automated vehicles start to be widely deployed and adopted, the reality is that automated driving (AD) technology has proven far more challenging to develop and validate than anticipated. In the near term, automated driving deployment will remain very limited to specific locales where it has been demonstrated to work safely and reliably and there is a demonstrated market willing to adopt the technology.

In addition to the significant technical challenges associated with AD, the global economy entered what is likely to be a severe and protracted economic downturn at the beginning of 2020 resulting from the global coronavirus pandemic. With much of the global economy shut down through the first half of 2020, companies are reevaluating their investment priorities and AD is likely to lose out to electrification. With consumers having less disposable income for the foreseeable future, buying vehicles or using ride-hailing services will also likely take a significant hit. However, even before the global health crisis, companies in the AD sector were rethinking go-to-market strategy and turning toward goods delivery rather than carrying passengers. 

This Guidehouse Insights report provides projections of the size of global and regional markets for light duty consumer and commercial vehicles with highly automated driving capability. Baseline, conservative, and aggressive scenarios for market deployment are included as well as market splits among consumer, robotaxi and goods delivery vehicles. Forecasts for partially automated vehicles are also included.


Pages 34
Tables | Charts | Figures 52
  • When will the first automated driving (AD) vehicles come to market?
  • How fast will annual sales grow for automated light duty consumer and commercial vehicles?
  • What effect will different levels of AD have on the global vehicle population?
  • How quickly will world regions adopt AD vehicles?
  • Which market segments will see AD adoption?
  • Fleet managers
  • Automotive OEMs
  • Automotive industry suppliers
  • Automated driving developers
  • Mobility and transportation service platform providers and operators
  • Insurance companies
  • Government agencies
  • City managers
  • Investor community

1. Executive Summary

  1.1 Market Overview

1.2 Scope

1.3 Market Forecasts

2. Data Assumptions

  2.1 Overall Forecast Modeling

2.2 Consumer Vehicle Market

2.3 Commercial Services Market

3. Market Forecasts

3.1 Introduction

  3.2 Total AD

  3.2.1 Global Forecasts

3.2.1.1 Effects of Remote Work

  3.2.1.2 Deployments and Market Penetration

3.2.1.3 Commercial Services Vehicles

3.2.1.3.1 Cargo and Goods Delivery Vehicles

3.2.1.3.2 Passenger-Carrying Robotaxis

3.2.2 Regional Forecasts

3.2.2.1 North America

3.2.2.2 Europe

3.2.2.3 China

  3.2.2.4 India

  3.2.2.5 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Asia Pacific

3.2.2.6 Rest of Asia Pacific

3.2.2.7 Latin America

3.2.2.8 Middle East & Africa

3.3 Conclusions and Recommendations

4. Acronym and Abbreviation List

5. Table of Contents

6. Table of Charts and Figures

7. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

  • Annual AD Level 4+ LDV Deployments by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • Annual AD Level 4+ LDV Deployments Penetration by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • Annual LDV Unit Sales by Region After COVID-19 Impact, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • Annual LDV Population by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • Annual AD Level 4+ LDV Deployments by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • Annual LD AD Vehicle Deployments by Level, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • Annual AD Level 4+ LDV Deployments by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 
    2020-2030
  • Annual AD Level 4+ LDV Deployments by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 
    2020-2030
  • Annual LD AD Vehicle Deployments by Use Case, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • Annual AD Level 4+ LDV Cargo Revenue by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • Annual AD Level 4+ LDV Robotaxi Revenue by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 
    2020-2030
  • Annual AD Level 4+ LDV Deployments by Scenario, North America: 2020-2030
  • Annual AD Level 4+ LDV Deployments by Scenario, Europe: 2020-2030
  • Annual AD Level 4+ LDV Deployments by Scenario, China: 2020-2030
  • Annual AD Level 4+ LDV Deployments by Scenario, India: 2020-2030
  • Annual AD Level 4+ LDV Deployments by Scenario, OECD Asia Pacific: 2020-2030
  • Annual AD Level 4+ LDV Deployments by Scenario, Rest of Asia Pacific: 2020-2030
  • Annual AD Level 4+ LDV Deployments by Scenario, Latin America: 2020-2030
  • Annual AD Level 4+ LDV Deployments by Scenario, Middle East & Africa: 2020-2030
  • Annual LDV Unit Sales by Region After COVID-19 Impact, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • Annual LDV Sales by Region Before COVID-19 Impact, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • Annual AD Level 4+ LDV Deployments by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • Annual AD Level 4+ LDV Deployments Penetration by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • Annual LDV Population by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • Annual AD Level 4+ LDV Cargo Deployments by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • Annual AD Level 4+ LDV Robotaxi Deployments by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • Annual AD Level 4+ LDV Consumer Deployments by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • Annual AD Level 4+ LDV Cargo Revenue by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • Annual AD Level 4+ LDV Robotaxi Revenue by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • Annual AD Level 4+ LDV Cargo VMT by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • Annual AD Level 2 LDV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • Annual AD Level 4+ LDV Robotaxi VMT by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • Annual AD Level 3 LDV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • Annual AD Level 0-1 LDV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • Annual AD Level 4+ LDV Deployments by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • Annual AD Level 4+ LDV Deployments Penetration by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • Annual AD Level 4+ LDV Deployments by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • Annual AD Level 4+ LDV Deployments Penetration by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • Annual AD Level 4+ LDV Deployments by Scenario, North America: 2020-2030
  • Annual AD Level 4+ LDV Deployments Penetration by Scenario, North America: 2020-2030
  • Annual AD Level 4+ LDV Deployments by Scenario, Europe: 2020-2030
  • Annual AD Level 4+ LDV Deployments Penetration by Scenario, Europe: 2020-2030
  • Annual AD Level 4+ LDV Deployments by Scenario, China: 2020-2030
  • Annual AD Level 4+ LDV Deployments Penetration by Scenario, China: 2020-2030
  • Annual AD Level 4+ LDV Deployments by Scenario, OECD Asia Pacific: 2020-2030
  • Annual AD Level 4+ LDV Deployments Penetration by Scenario, OECD Asia Pacific: 2020-2030
  • Annual AD Level 4+ LDV Deployments by Scenario, Rest of Asia Pacific: 2020-2030
  • Annual AD Level 4+ LDV Deployments Penetration by Scenario, Rest of Asia Pacific: 2020-2030
  • Annual AD Level 4+ LDV Deployments by Scenario, Latin America: 2020-2030
  • Annual AD Level 4+ LDV Deployments Penetration by Scenario, Latin America: 2020-2030
  • Annual AD Level 4+ LDV Deployments by Scenario, India: 2020-2030
  • Annual AD Level 4+ LDV Deployments Penetration by Scenario, India: 2020-2030
  • Annual AD Level 4+ LDV Deployments by Scenario, Middle East & Africa: 2020-2030
  • Annual AD Level 4+ LDV Deployments Penetration by Scenario, Middle East & Africa: 2020-2030
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