- What are the main drivers for the deployment of LDAVs?
- What barriers could possibly stem the deployment of LDAVs?
- How have the business models for LDAVs segmented and changed?
- What markets are poised to have the highest penetration of LDAVs?
- How many LDAVs on the road will be for personal versus commercial use?
2Q 2023
Light Duty Automated Vehicles
Global Consumer and Commercial Market Forecasts: 2023-2035
Light duty automated vehicles (LDAVs) are expected to experience steady growth in sales from 2023 through 2035. Importantly, in that timeframe, LDAVs with Level 4 (L4) and higher automation (hands-off, eyes-off, brain-off) will begin to enter the market. These are vehicles that can, in specific areas or use cases, drive without human intervention. The market implications of this technology are vast, and there are many factors driving its development, as well as several that could hold it back.
This Guidehouse Insights report examines the burgeoning market for L4 LDAVs and their penetration of the light duty vehicle (LDV) market, looking at the drivers of this emerging market as well as the barriers that could stop its growth. It predicts how the LDAV market will grow from 2023 through 2035 as well as the annual revenue automakers can expect from implementing the hardware needed for L4 autonomy. Guidehouse Insights also predicts what percentage of L4 LDAVs will be consumer vehicles versus commercial robotaxis or delivery vehicles.
Pages
32
Tables | Charts | Figures
28
Key Questions Addressed
Who Needs This Report
- Automakers
- Regulators
- Ride-Hailing Operators
- L4 AV Software Developers
Table Of Contents
1. Executive Summary
1.1 Overview
1.2 Market Drivers
1.3 Market Barriers
1.4 Market Outlook
2. Market Issues
2.1 Drivers
2.1.1 Technology Maturation
2.1.2 Market Consolidation
2.1.3 Regulatory Environment
2.1.4 Safety Improvements
2.2 Barriers
2.2.1 Technology Nascency
2.2.2 ODD Development Differences
2.2.3 Public Perception
2.2.4 Safety and Responsibility
2.3 Pricing
3. Industry Value Chain
3.1 Competitive Landscape
3.2 Business Model Evolution
4. Market Forecasts
4.1 Methodology
4.2 LDV Forecast
4.3 L4 LDAV Forecast
4.4 OEM Revenue Forecast for L4
4.5 OEM Revenue Forecast for L4 over L3
4.6 L4 Deployment by Vehicle Classification
5. Conclusions and Recommendations
5.1 Three Big Predictions
5.2 Recommendations
5.2.1 Automakers
5.2.2 Regulators
5.2.3 Ride-Hailing Operators
6. Acronym and Abbreviation List
7. Table of Contents
8. Table of Charts and Figures
9. Scope of Study
10. Sources, Methodology & Notes
List of Charts and Figures
- Annual LDV Unit Sales by Region, World Markets: 2023-2035
- Annual L4 LDAV Deployment by Region, World Markets: 2023-2035
- Annual L4 LDAV Deployment by Scenario, World Markets: 2023-2035
- Annual Deployment Revenue for L4 AV Equipment and Software by Region, World Markets: 2027-2035
- Annual OEM Deployment Revenue Premiums (L4 over L3) by Region, World Markets: 2027-2035
- Annual L4 Deployment by Vehicle Classification, World Markets: 2023-2035
- Annual L4 Robotaxi Deployment by Region, World Markets: 2023-2035
- Annual L4 Consumer Vehicle Deployment by Region, World Markets: 2023-2035
- Annual L4 Delivery Vehicle Deployment by Region, World Markets: 2023-2035
- Annual Deployment Revenue for L4 AV Equipment and Software by Region, World Markets: 2027-2035
- Annual OEM Deployment Revenue Premiums (L4 over L3) by Region, World Markets: 2027-2035
- Annual L4 Deployment by Vehicle Classification, World Markets: 2023-2035
- Annual L4 Robotaxi Deployment by Region, World Markets: 2023-2035
- Annual L4 Consumer Vehicle Deployment by Region, World Markets: 2023-2035
- Annual L4 Delivery Vehicle Deployment by Region, World Markets: 2023-2035
- L4 LDAV Market Value Chain
List of Tables
- Annual LDV Unit Sales by Region, World Markets: 2023-2035
- Annual L4 LDAV Deployment by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2023-2035
- Annual L4 LDAV Deployment by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2023-2035
- Annual L4 LDAV Deployment by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2023-2035
- OEM Equipment Costs per Vehicle by Automation Level, World Markets: 2027-2035
- Marginal Equipment Costs per Vehicle by Automation Level, World Markets: 2027-2035
- Annual L4 Robotaxi Deployment by Region, World Markets: 2023-2035
- Annual L4 Consumer Vehicle Deployment by Region, World Markets: 2023-2035
- Annual L4 Delivery Vehicle Deployment by Region, World Markets: 2023-2035
- Annual Deployment Revenue for L4 LDAV Equipment and Software by Region, World Markets: 2027-2035
- Annual OEM Deployment Revenue Premiums (L4 over L3) by Region, World Markets: 2027-2035
- OEM Equipment Costs and Marginal Equipment Costs per Vehicle by Automation Level, World Markets: 2027
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