4Q 2019

Light Commercial Vehicle Electrification

Plug-In Hybrid and Battery Electric Light-Duty Commercial Vehicles: Global Analysis and Forecasts

In the light-duty (LD) commercial vehicle (LCV) segment, internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) are the leading powertrain. However, electric drive technologies, such as hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and battery EVs are quickly closing the gap and becoming more competitive. The cost of electrified LCVs are falling due to improvements in battery technology and market maturity. Governments at all levels are supporting an electric transition to meet fuel efficiency and emissions regulations. Adoption of electric LCVs is expected to continue to rise as upfront vehicle costs fall, vehicle economics improve, and governments continue to place importance on the reduction of greenhouse gas and other emission pollutants that contribute to poor air quality.

In the near term, fleets and consumers can take advantage of government incentives to help bring electric LCV purchase price toward parity with their ICE counterparts. Fleets and manufacturers can use these LCVs across use segments to achieve emissions and air quality targets, while improving their bottom line via reduced fuel, operations, and maintenance costs. 

This report from Guidehouse Research, a Guidehouse company, analyzes the global LCV market across electric powertrains (plug-in hybrid and battery electric) by region. The study provides an analysis of the market issues, including opportunities, implementation challenges, and prominent market factors associated with the LCV market segment. Global market forecasts for vehicle populations and sales are broken out by powertrain and region and extend through 2030. The report also examines the key technologies surrounding charging infrastructure, competitive alternative fuels, and key market participants.

Pages 48
Tables | Charts | Figures 31
  • What is the state of the market for electrified light-duty commercial vehicles (LCVs)?
  • How will factors such as energy prices, battery trends, emissions, and air quality standards affect the global LCV market?
  • Why will a growing number of LCVs be electric?
  • What are key barriers to electrification and market growth?
  • What are often-overlooked considerations when fleets electrify?
  • How can fleets best realize improvements in the total cost of ownership?
  • Which segments are growing fastest and why?
  • Which alternative fuels have the most potential to disrupt the market?
  • Vehicle OEMs and Tier 1 Suppliers
  • Fleet managers
  • Light duty government fleets
  • Private transportation companies
  • Electric vehicle charging companies
  • Local, regional, and central government agencies
  • Utilities
  • Investor community

1. Executive Summary

1.1   Introduction

1.2   Market Forecast

2. Market Issues

2.1   Introduction

2.2   Scope

2.3   Technologies

2.3.1   Powertrains

2.3.1.1   Hybrid

2.3.1.2   PHEV

2.3.1.3   BEV

2.4   Market Drivers

2.4.1   Declining Battery Prices

2.4.2   Government Incentives

2.4.2.1   North America

2.4.2.2   Europe

2.4.2.3   China

2.4.3   Efficiency Standards

2.4.4   Ambient Air Quality

2.4.5   Lower TCO

2.4.5.1   Maintenance

2.4.5.2   Cost of Energy

2.4.6   Oil and Carbon Prices

2.4.6.1   Vehicle-to-Grid Integration

2.4.6.2   Charging Types

2.5   Market Challenges

2.5.1   Vehicle Requirements and Costs

2.5.2   Infrastructure

2.5.3   Competing Fuel Alternatives

2.5.3.1   Renewable Diesel

2.5.3.2   Propane Autogas

2.5.3.3   Natural Gas

3. Key Industry Players

3.1   Introduction

3.2   Major OEMs

3.2.1   Ford Motor Company

3.2.2   General Motors

3.2.3   Nissan Motor Company, Ltd.

3.2.4   Rivian

3.3   Commercial Vehicle Applications

3.3.1   StreetScooter

3.3.2   VIA Motors

3.3.3   Workhorse Group

3.3.4   XL Fleet

4. Market Forecasts

4.1   Methodology

4.1.1   Battery Prices

4.1.2   Oil Prices

4.1.3   Scenarios

4.2   Market Forecasts

4.2.1   LCV Sales

4.2.2   PEV LCV Sales

4.2.3   PEV LCV Sales by Powertrain

4.2.4   PHEV LCV Sales

4.2.5   Battery Electric LCV Sales

4.3   Conclusions and Recommendations

4.3.1   Recommendations for Industry

4.3.2   Recommendations for Fleets

4.3.3   Recommendations for Governments

5. Acronym and Abbreviation List

6. Table of Contents

7. Table of Charts and Figures

8. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

  • LCV Sales, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2030
  • LCV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2030
  • PEV LCV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2030
  • PEV LCV Sales by Powertrain, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2030
  • PHEV LCV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2030
  • BEV LCV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2030
  • LCV Data Analysis Geographic Detail
  • Enacted Emissions and Fuel Efficiency Targets for Light Trucks
  • Energy Costs per Mile for Electric and Gasoline-Fueled Vehicles
  • Monthly LCFS Credit Price and Transaction Volume, California LCFS: 2013-2019
  • LDV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2030
  • LCV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2030
  • PEV LCV Sales by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2030
  • PEV LCV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2030
  • PEV LCV Sales by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2030
  • PHEV LCV Sales by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2030
  • PHEV LCV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2030
  • PHEV LCV Sales by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2030
  • BEV LCV Sales by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2030
  • BEV LCV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2030
  • BEV LCV Sales by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2030
  • Dimensions of Analysis
  • Vehicle Weight (or Length) by Category in Key Countries/Regions
  • Common LCV Types and Use Cases
  • Electrified LCV Market Comparison Estimates
  • North American Incentives Programs
  • European Incentive Programs
  • Purchase Subsidies Requirement Changes for Commercial LD NEVs, China:  2018-2019
  • Notable Targets and Mandates to Reduce ICEVs
  • TCO Estimate Between a Diesel and Battery Electric Passenger Van: 2018 vs. 2030
  • Summary of Market Participants
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