All Reports
3Q 2024

Hydrogen Internal Combustion Engines and the Medium and Heavy Duty Truck Market

Examining Global Truck Sales and Revenue Forecasts for Hydrogen-Powered Long-Haul, Distribution, Harsh Duty, and Vocational Vehicles with Regional Forecasts: 2025-2034

The drive to decarbonize the medium and heavy duty (MHD) truck industry has led to the development of numerous driveline options to replace conventional diesel internal combustion engines (D-ICE). While the greatest focus in both market interest and OEM R&D budgets has been on battery electric vehicles (BEVs), advocates have also promoted hydrogen as a means of decarbonization. While hydrogen as an emissions reduction pathway has been mainly predicated on fuel cell vehicles (FCVs), the increasing interest in using hydrogen to power adapted ICE engines for MHDs could have an effect on all stakeholders in the commercial vehicle value chain, shippers, regulators, and investors.

This report looks at the global market for hydrogen-ICE (H2-ICE) MHD trucks during the forecast period 2025-2034. It provides forecasts for the overall market, segmented by units and revenue, and unit sales forecasts segmented by vehicle size (medium duty and heavy duty) and task (long-haul, distribution, harsh duty, and vocational).

Guidehouse Insights projects that the global market for heavy duty trucks powered by H2-ICE drivelines will reach 41,081 units by 2034. This segment, which is expected to experience a 44.5% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the ten-year forecast period, includes the over-the-road (OTR), distribution and collection and delivery (distribution/C&D), harsh duty, and vocational segments.

Pages 43
Tables | Charts | Figures 43
  • Which global regions are expected to be have the greatest adoption rates for H2-ICE vehicles?
  • Which global regions are expected to have the least adoption rates for H2-ICE vehicles?
  • What variables contribute to H2-ICE vehicle adoption rates?
  • What technologies compete with H2-ICE technology in vehicles?
  • How does vehicle range and purpose affect H2-ICE adoption rates?
  • Industry suppliers
  • Equipment aggregators and OEMs
  • Regulators and legislators
  • City and municipal authorities
  • Investors
  • Component suppliers

1. Executive Summary

2. Market Issues

2.1    Introduction

2.2    Drivers

2.2.1   Regional Regulation

2.2.1.1    North America

2.2.1.2    Europe

2.2.1.3    Asia Pacific

2.2.1.4    Latin America and Mercosur

2.2.2   Local Regulation

2.2.3   Incentivizes

2.2.4   Aftermarket Revenue

2.2.5   Sustainability and Environmental, Social, and Governance Considerations

2.2.6   Regulatory and Residual Value Future Proofing

2.2.7   Technical Familiarity

2.2.8   Vehicle Weight and Range

2.3    Barriers

2.3.1   Infrastructure

2.3.2   Vehicle Packaging

2.3.3   Cost and Total Cost of Ownership Considerations

2.3.4   Driver Acceptance

2.3.5   Repair and Maintenance Provision and Access

2.3.6   Funding Access and Residual Value Concerns

2.4    Pricing

3. Industry Value Chain

3.1    Competitive Landscape

3.1.1   Merger & Acquisition Activities

3.1.2   Business Model Evolution

4. Market Forecasts

4.1    Scope

4.2    Methodology

4.3    Limitations

4.4    Key Assumptions

4.5    Forecasts

4.5.1   Heavy Duty H2-ICE

4.5.2   Medium Duty H2-ICE

4.5.3   OTR MHD H2-ICE Trucks

4.5.4   Distribution/C&D MHD H2-ICE Truck Sales

4.5.5   Harsh Duty MHD H2-ICE Trucks

4.5.6   Vocational MHD H2-ICE

5. Conclusions and Recommendations

5.1    Three Big Takeaways

5.2    Recommendations

5.2.1   Regulators

5.2.2   OEMs

5.2.3   Fleets

5.3    Conclusion

6. Acronym and Abbreviation List

7. Table of Contents

8. Table of Charts and Figures

9. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

  • Global MHD H2-ICE Truck Sales, World Markets: 2025–2034
  • PACCAR Inc: Percentage Aftermarket Yield per Unit Vehicle Sale
  • R&D as a Percentage of Revenue: Aggregate Truck Industry OEMs and Suppliers: 1993-2023
  • Total Heavy Duty H2-ICE Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • Total Heavy Duty H2-ICE Engine Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • Total Medium Duty H2-ICE Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • Total Medium Duty H2-ICE Unit Engine Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • OTR Heavy Duty H2-ICE Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • OTR Medium Duty H2-ICE Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • Distribution/C&D Heavy Duty H2-ICE Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • Distribution/C&D Medium Duty H2-ICE Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • Harsh Duty Heavy Duty H2-ICE Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • Harsh Duty Medium Duty H2-ICE Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • Vocational Heavy Duty H2-ICE Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • Vocational Medium Duty H2-ICE Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • The H2-ICE MHD Truck Value Chain
  • Regional Forecast Segments

  • Total H2-ICE MHD Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • LKW-MAUT Toll Rates 2024
  • Total MHD Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • Total ICE MHD Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • Total ICE Heavy Duty Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • Total ICE Medium Duty Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • OTR ICE Medium Duty Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • Distribution/C&D ICE Medium Duty Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • Harsh Duty ICE Medium Duty Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • Vocational ICE Medium Duty Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • OTR ICE Heavy Duty Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • Distribution/C&D ICE Heavy Duty Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • Harsh Duty ICE Heavy Duty Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • Vocational ICE Heavy Duty Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • Total Medium Duty H2-ICE Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • OTR Medium Duty H2-ICE Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • Distribution/C&D Medium Duty H2-ICE Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • Harsh Duty Medium Duty H2-ICE Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • Vocational Medium Duty H2-ICE Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • Total Medium Duty H2-ICE Unit Engine Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • Total Heavy Duty H2 ICE Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • OTR Heavy Duty H2 ICE Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • Distribution/C&D Heavy Duty H2 ICE Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • Harsh Duty Heavy Duty H2 ICE Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • Vocational Heavy Duty H2-ICE Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
  • Total Heavy Duty H2 ICE Unit Engine Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034
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