EV Battery Production Will Depend on the Critical Minerals Supply Chain

The shift to transportation electrification is driven by existing and future decarbonization requirements, particularly for light duty automobiles, and has resulted in automakers setting ambitious production goals. The result is an enormous increase in advanced battery cell production to support millions of plug-in EVs (PEVs), which will require a corresponding increase in raw material sourcing, particularly for lithium, nickel, and cobalt. The current supply chains for mining and refining these minerals are heavily focused in specific geographic areas, with China having an outsized share of nearly every market. Businesses and governments alike desire to increase production of these materials concurrent with efforts to increase the overall supply to diversify their sourcing and reduce the risk of disruption.

While these new sources for critical minerals are being established, disruptions in supply, including shortages, could delay progress toward widespread electrification and the related benefits in reducing global greenhouse gas emissions. To make this transition successfully, stakeholders must build new, more localized supply chains, establish a circular ecosystem through recycling to reduce dependence on mining, and innovate ways to reduce the reliance on some of these materials.

This Guidehouse Insights Strategy Insight reviews the current demand and market drivers for EV batteries that are leading to increased demand for battery minerals. It explains the motivations for diversifying the battery material supply chain and the potential negative consequences of supply chain disruption. It also offers key recommendations for avoiding near-term shortages and establishing long-term sustainability in the battery material supply chain.