All Reports
3Q 2023

EV Batteries

Advanced Automotive Batteries in Light Duty and Commercial Medium and Heavy Duty EVs: Market Trends and Forecast, 2023-2032

Rising sales of plug-in EVs (PEVs), growing regulatory pressure on vehicle emissions and internal combustion engine vehicle sales, and OEM commitments to electrification have increased the demand for advanced batteries and the associated minerals. Battery cell technology continues to improve and has led to a diverse landscape in terms of chemistries, physical formats, and suppliers. Nickel-rich and lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries constitute the majority of the market today, and this is expected to continue, with LFP gaining in adoption over the coming years. Next-generation technologies in development, such as silicon anodes and solid-state, lithium sulfur, and sodium ion batteries, continue to mature and approach mass-market production.

Meeting the expected global demand for PEVs—which include battery EVs (BEVs) as well as plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs)—in the next 10 years will require a massive buildup of capacity all along the value chain. This will correspond with a trend toward localizing mineral extraction and refinement and cell production, in some cases incentivized by government regulations and subsidies. In the short term, expanded cell manufacturing capacity may be at risk of outpacing raw material availability, leading to potential supply disruptions.

This Guidehouse Insights report includes forecasts for light duty passenger EV and medium and heavy duty commercial EV battery pack prices, production volumes, and revenues. Forecast figures include regional segmentation of the world market. The topics examined include market trends, drivers, and barriers of the EV battery market, and market forecasts, which extend through 2032.

Pages 46
Tables | Charts | Figures 31
  • What are the key market drivers and challenges of the evolving EV battery industry?
  • How will the cost per kilowatt-hour for lithium ion batteries change in the next several years?
  • What chemistries will make up the EV battery market in the next several years?
  • When will new battery technologies come to market, and what are the challenges of mass-market production?
  • What are the forecasts for battery production and revenue for automotive advanced batteries through 2032?
  • Vehicle manufacturers
  • Vehicle fleet managers
  • Automotive industry suppliers
  • Battery OEMs
  • Government agencies
  • Investor community

1. Executive Summary

1.1      Introduction

1.2      Market Forecasts

2. Market Issues

2.1      Battery Overview

2.2      Key Components

2.2.1     Battery Pack

2.2.2     Cells

2.2.3     Temperature Control

2.3      Developing Technologies

2.3.1     Anodes

2.3.2     Sodium Ion

2.3.3     Lithium Sulfur

2.3.4     Solid-State

2.3.5     Mixed Chemistry Hybrid Batteries

2.3.6     Dry Coatings

2.4      Vehicle Classes

3. Market Trends

3.1      Battery Chemistry

3.2      Pack Configuration

3.3      Manufacturing Capacity

3.4      Market Drivers

3.4.1     Increasing PEV Adoption, Boosted by ICE Bans and ZEV Mandates

3.4.2     Growing Pack Sizes

3.4.3     Investment in Innovation

3.5      Market Barriers

3.5.1     Raw Material Sourcing

3.5.2     Supply Chain Reorganization to Favor Localization

3.5.3     Safety and Cost of Recalls

3.5.4     Nascent State of Battery Recycling

4. Industry Value Chain

4.1      Pictorial Representation of the Value Chain

4.2      Competitive Landscape

4.2.1     Business Model Evolution

4.2.1.1   Geographic Intensity

4.2.1.2   Vertical Integration

5. Market Forecasts

5.1      Forecast Methodology and Assumptions

5.2      Battery Pack Pricing

5.2.1     Light Duty Plug-In EVs

5.2.2     Medium and Heavy Duty Battery EVs

5.3      Manufacturing and Revenue Trends

5.3.1     Advanced Battery Manufacturing

5.3.2     Advanced Battery Revenue

5.3.3     Battery Pack Size

5.4      Technology Breakdown

5.4.1     Light Duty Vehicles

5.4.2     Medium and Heavy Duty Vehicles

6. Conclusions and Recommendations

6.1      Three Big Takeaways

6.2      Recommendations

6.2.1     Automakers

6.2.2     Battery Suppliers

6.2.3     Governments

7. Acronym and Abbreviation List

8. Table of Contents

9. Table of Charts and Figures

10. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

  • LD BEV Advanced Battery Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2023-2032
  • LD BEV Battery Pack Price, World Markets: 2023-2032
  • MHD BEV Battery Pack Price, World Markets: 2023-2032
  • LD BEV Advanced Battery Manufacturing by Region, World Markets: 2023-2032
  • MHD BEV Advanced Battery Manufacturing by Region, World Markets: 2023-2032
  • LD PEV Advanced Battery Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2023-2032
  • MHD BEV Advanced Battery Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2023-2032
  • LD BEV Market Share by Battery Technology, World Markets: 2023-2032
  • MHD BEV Market Share by Battery Technology, World Markets: 2023-2032
  • Advanced Automotive Battery Market Value Chain
  • LDV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2023-2032
  • LD PEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2023-2032
  • LD BEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2023-2032
  • LD PHEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2023-2032
  • MHDV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2023-2032
  • MHD BEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2023-2032
  • BEV Battery Pack Price by Vehicle Class, World Markets: 2023-2032
  • LD BEV Market Share by Battery Technology, World Markets: 2023-2032
  • MHD BEV Market Share by Battery Technology, World Markets: 2023-2032
  • LD PEV Advanced Battery Manufacturing by Region, World Markets: 2023-2032
  • LD BEV Advanced Battery Manufacturing by Region, World Markets: 2023-2032
  • LD PHEV Advanced Battery Manufacturing by Region, World Markets: 2023-2032
  • LD PEV Advanced Battery Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2023-2032
  • LD BEV Advanced Battery Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2023-2032
  • LD PHEV Advanced Battery Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2023-2032
  • MHD BEV Advanced Battery Manufacturing by Region, World Markets: 2023-2032
  • MHD BEV Advanced Battery Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2023-2032
  • EV Battery Chemistry Comparisons: 2023
  • Examples of Li-Ion Battery Chemistries by Battery Vendor and Vehicle OEM
  • Upcoming LD ZEV Sales Mandates by Year
  • Automaker Commitments to Full or Partial ZEV Sales by Year 
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