- How much of a risk does oversupply present to the electrolyzer industry, and what steps can manufacturers take to manage their exposure?
- Will electrolyzer manufacturers in North America and Europe struggle to compete with lower cost imported equipment?
- How do support measures for green
hydrogen differ among key regional markets?
- How quickly will electrolyzer deployments accelerate, and which markets will experience the fastest growth?
- How will the respective market shares of ALK, PEM, SOEC, and AEM electrolyzers evolve over time?
3Q 2023
Electrolyzer Supply and Demand Outlook
Green Hydrogen Production Technologies: Global Capacity and Revenue Forecasts, 2023-2032
Producing green hydrogen at the scale needed to deliver meaningful emissions reductions requires a substantial ramp up of installed electrolyzer capacity. Electrolyzer manufacturers have responded to the anticipated demand by investing heavily in new manufacturing facilities. According to Guidehouse Insights’ Hydrogen Electrolyzer Tracker, global nameplate manufacturing capacity amounted to 12.3 GWe by the end of 2022. It is set to increase to an anticipated 20.4 GWe by the end of 2023 and to 28.5 GWe by the end of 2024 providing that new capacity is delivered on schedule.
Although capacity expansion is necessary for individual manufacturers to deliver projects swiftly, it also presents risks. Significant growth in electrolyzer deployments has yet to occur, and the timing for demand increases remains uncertain. Some industry observers have concluded that the electrolyzer sector may suffer from a sustained mismatch between demand and supply. Others have warned that European and North American manufacturers will encounter fierce international competition for market share, particularly from Chinese OEMs able to produce electrolyzers at significantly reduced costs. Manufacturers’ responses to these risks will strongly influence the complexion of the electrolyzer industry throughout the 2020s and early 2030s.
This report provides an analysis of electrolyzer supply and demand dynamics over the coming decade. It includes forecasts for cumulative electrolyzer capacity deployments, annual revenues, and average system CAPEX between 2023 and 2032, as well as information on announced manufacturing capacity over the same period. This data informs Guidehouse Insights’ assessment of the opportunities and challenges faced by manufacturers, project developers, and other hydrogen stakeholders in key global markets.
Pages
44
Tables | Charts | Figures
28
Key Questions Addressed
Who Needs This Report
- Electrolyzer manufacturers
- BOP and component suppliers
- EPCs
- Industrial gas suppliers
- Hydrogen project developers
- Industrial energy consumers
- Utilities
- Investors
Table Of Contents
1. Executive Summary
1.1 Market Introduction
1.2 Market Forecast
2. Market Issues
2.1 Drivers
2.2 Barriers
2.3 Pricing
3. Technology Issues
3.1 Technology Overview
3.1.1 Alkaline Electrolyzers
3.1.2 Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Electrolyzers
3.1.3 Solid Oxide Electrolyzers
3.1.4 Anion Exchange Membrane Electrolyzers
3.1.5 Emerging Electrolyzer Technologies
3.2 Choice of Technology
3.3 Choice of Manufacturer
3.4 Evolution in Module Sizes
3.5 Advances in Manufacturing Automation
4. Policy Issues
4.1 Introduction
4.1.1 United States
4.1.2 Canada
4.1.3 European Union
4.1.4 United Kingdom
4.1.5 China
4.1.6 Japan
4.1.7 India
4.1.8 Australia
5. Industry Value Chain
5.1 Manufacturers
5.2 Other Players
5.3 Partnerships and JV Agreements
5.4 Manufacturing Capacity
6. Market Forecasts
6.1 Methodology
6.2 Global Market Overview
6.3 Regional Market Overview
6.3.1 North America
6.3.2 Europe
6.3.3 Asia Pacific
6.3.4 Latin America
6.3.5 Middle East & Africa
7. Conclusions and Recommendations
7.1 Key Takeaways
7.2 Recommendations
7.2.1 Electrolyzer Manufacturers
7.2.2 Project Developers
7.2.3 Capital Providers
8. Acronym and Abbreviation List
9. Table of Contents
10. Table of Charts and Figures
11. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes
List of Charts and Figures
- Installed Electrolyzer Capacity Base & Annual Revenues by Region, World Markets: 2023-2032
- Average System CAPEX for Electrolyzer Technologies, World Markets: 2023-2032
- Announced Electrolyzer Manufacturing Capacity by Technology, World Markets: 2023-2032
- Installed Electrolyzer Capacity Base & Annual Revenues by Region, World Markets: 2023-2032
- Installed Electrolyzer Capacity Base & Annual Revenues by Technology, World Markets: 2023-2032
- Installed Electrolyzer Capacity Base & Annual Revenues by Technology, North America: 2023-2032
- Installed Electrolyzer Capacity Base & Annual Revenues by Technology, Europe: 2023-2032
- Installed Electrolyzer Capacity Base & Annual Revenues by Technology, Asia Pacific: 2023-2032
- Installed Electrolyzer Capacity Base & Annual Revenues by Technology, Latin America: 2023-2032
- Installed Electrolyzer Capacity Base & Annual Revenues by Technology, Middle East & Africa: 2023-2032
- Illustration of the Electrolyzer Value Chain and Observed Business Models
List of Tables
- Average System CAPEX for Electrolyzer Technologies, World Markets: 2023-2032
- Announced Electrolyzer Manufacturing Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2023-2032
- Announced Electrolyzer Manufacturing Capacity by Technology, World Markets: 2023-2032
- Installed Electrolyzer Capacity Base by Region, World Markets: 2023-2032
- Annual Electrolyzer Revenues by Region, World Markets: 2023-2032
- Installed Electrolyzer Capacity Base by Technology, World Markets: 2023-2032
- Annual Electrolyzer Revenues by Technology, World Markets: 2023-2032
- Installed Electrolyzer Capacity Base by Technology, North America: 2023-2032
- Annual Electrolyzer Revenues by Technology, North America: 2023-2032
- Installed Electrolyzer Capacity Base by Technology, Europe: 2023-2032
- Annual Electrolyzer Revenues by Technology, Europe: 2023-2032
- Installed Electrolyzer Capacity Base by Technology, Asia Pacific: 2023-2032
- Annual Electrolyzer Revenues by Technology, Asia Pacific: 2023-2032
- Installed Electrolyzer Capacity Base by Technology, Latin America: 2023-2032
- Annual Electrolyzer Revenues by Technology, Latin America: 2023-2032
- Installed Electrolyzer Capacity Base by Technology, Middle East & Africa: 2023-2032
- Annual Electrolyzer Revenues by Technology, Middle East & Africa: 2023-2032
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