1Q 2024

Decarbonization Means Drastic Changes for the Medium and Heavy Duty Truck Value Chain

Moving away from the internal combustion engine (ICE) is the biggest change that the truck manufacturing industry will likely ever experience. More so than mass production or regulation, decarbonization takes an established and mature industry and turns it on its head. These changes will reverberate along the entire industry value chain.
This report assesses the impact of decarbonization and electrification on the
medium and heavy duty (MHD) truck value chain for three specific stakeholder groups—OEMs, truck fleets, and dealers—and considers the viability of the current industry business model moving forward.

Pages 11
Tables | Charts | Figures 6
  • How will decarbonization affect revenues for MHD truck OEMs, fleets, and dealers?
  • What actions can these stakeholders take to mitigate revenue losses?
  • Is the current business model one that is appropriate for a post-ICE MHD truck business?
  • Truck manufacturers
  • Component suppliers
  • Truck dealerships
  • Truck fleets
  • Regulators




Decarbonizing and Electrifying the MHD Trucking Industry Will Create Significant Revenue Shortfalls

OEMs Will See Substantial Reductions in Aftermarket Revenues

Truck Fleets Will Save on Costs but Lose Fuel Surcharge Revenues

Dealers Will Be the Hardest Hit by Aftermarket Revenue Losses

A Coherent Plan for the Transition to Electrification Is a Strategic Priority for the MHD Trucking Industry

OEMs May Have to Offer Support to the Network in the Medium Term

OEMs May Need to Consider Taking Distribution In-House

The Trucking Industry Needs a New Business Model



  • PACCAR: Contribution to Revenue by Segment, Industrial Business
  • PACCAR: Contribution to Gross Margin by Segment, Industrial Business
  • Werner: Supplies and Maintenance Costs as a Percentage of Revenue
  • Werner: Fuel Surcharge as a Percentage of Revenue vs. Operating Ratio
  • Werner: Fuel Surcharge vs. Supplies and Maintenance as a Percentage of Revenue
  • Rush: Revenue and Gross Margin Comparisons
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