Analyst Insight: Natural Gas Price Trends and Distributed Generation Technologies

The market for natural gas distributed generation (NGDG) technologies has grown as economies improve, business models evolve, and the energy sector transforms. Ample natural gas (NG) supply and accessibility in preceding years spurred significant trade increases and contributed to the widespread deployment of NG technologies. The constant driver for their deployment has been the low cost of NG in many key markets, increasing technology market value and making them more viable options for distributed power.

A tightening global gas market, coupled with a reduction in the post-pandemic economic rebound and ongoing geopolitical concerns, has triggered record gas spot prices and price volatility in 2022. The geopolitical situation in Ukraine has created unprecedented uncertainty and volatility, particularly in European and Asian markets. The outlook remains highly uncertain, and further volatility and supply chain issues can be expected. Such events illuminate the importance of energy security and flexibility. The demand for reliable onsite power generation is not subsiding—diesel gensets remain the DG market leader—but NG technologies, particularly NG gensets, are closing the gap. Similarly, renewable solutions (e.g., storage-plus resources) offer cleaner emissions profiles and increased competition in developed markets. 

This Guidehouse Insights Report examines NG price trends and their effect on the DG market. Historical gas spot prices are considered, and recent market trends, drivers, and barriers explored. The effect of NG prices on future NGDG deployment is introduced and will be further investigated in the Natural Gas Distributed Generation Forecast 3Q22.