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2Q 2023

Developing Solutions for Recycling End-of-Life EV Batteries

Plug-in EV (PEV) sales, which reached 10.4 million in 2022, are projected to accelerate to 57 million vehicles by 2030, a global market share of 47%. Demand for PEV batteries will increase in parallel with PEV sales. An increasing number of PEV batteries will eventually reach the end of their useful life and require an alternative solution to being discarded into landfills, which violates environmental goals, policies, and regulations. Recycling is considered a viable solution for end-of-life PEV batteries. It is environmentally sustainable and it meets broad government and industry strategic goals of mitigating international supply chain and geo-political risks by decreasing reliance on material extraction and refinement dominated by a handful of countries.

North American light duty PEV sales are estimated to reach 6.6 million units by 2030 and PEV battery recycling is viewed as a strategic solution to keep these materials in a closed-loop supply chain in which 95% to 98% of key battery materials are recoverable and can be directed into new battery production. Assuming a minimum 10-year lifespan, nearly 667,000 PEV batteries—the number of PEVs sold in 2021—will be available for recycling in the US by 2031.

This Guidehouse Insights report presents forecasts for future PEV sales, PEV battery production, and the potential volume of PEV batteries available for recycling. It includes an overview of potential business models for establishing a PEV battery recycling market and identifies key incentives and regulations that could ensure the safe removal, discharge, handling, and transportation of end-of-life PEV batteries to recycling facilities. 

Pages 19
Tables | Charts | Figures 13
  • What is the future market for global and US PEV sales?
  • What is the global and US market demand for PEV batteries?
  • What are current and future volumes of PEV batteries available for recycling?
  • What is the estimated value of extracted materials from an end-of-life PEV battery?
  • What is the regulatory environment for battery recycling requirements?
  • What are the benefits and risks of potential business models that can be used to develop a functioning PEV battery recycling market?
  • What incentives and regulations are required to support the safe handling and transport of PEV batteries to recycling facilities?
  • PEV and battery manufacturers
  • PEV purchasers
  • Government regulatory agencies
  • Environmental advocacy organizations
  • PEV battery recyclers
  • Vehicle dealerships
  • Salvage and scraping yards

Spark

Context

Recommendations

PEVs Sales Are On The Rise and They Need Batteries

  Global EV Sales Have Grown Significantly in the Last Five Years

  EV Sales Drive Global Battery Demand

What Does the Battery Market Size Mean for US EV Sales?

  US and Canada Battery Demand Could Lag Supply

  The EV Battery Recycling Market in the US Is Forecast to Grow

  The EV Battery Recycling Process Has Multiple Benefits

  Valuing Materials from EV Battery Recycling 

  Justifying Recycling Costs

  Transporting Used EV Batteries 

  Future Battery Costs Will Determine Competition with Recycled Batteries

  Regulations, Policies, and Business Models Affect the Recycling Market

EV Ecosystem Innovators Must Consider the Closed-Loop Battery Supply
Chain

  Core Charges Could Be Problematic for EV Batteries

  Recyclers Could Pay for End-of-Life Batteries

  Manufacturers Could Pay for Collecting End-of-Life Batteries

  Batteries Could Be Leased

  Other Incentives and Regulations Are Needed

  • EV Sales, Percentage of Vehicles Sales, and Number of EV Batteries Available for Recycling, Worldwide, 2022-2031
  • Global BEV and PHEV Sales by Region, Worldwide, 2022-2031
  • GWh of Battery Production in 2022 and Battery Capacity Needed for 2030 Battery Demand
  • EV Sales, Percentage of Vehicles Sales, and Number of EV Batteries Available for Recycling, US, 2022-2031
  • Cathode Supply Chain
  • US EV Battery Demand for Stated Policies, Sustainable Development, and Average Scenarios with a Range of EV Batteries Available for Recycling: Low (25%), Base (50%), and High (75%)
  • EV Recycled Batteries as a Percentage of 2025 and 2030 Base and High Production Levels for High (75%), Base (50%), and Low (25%) EV Battery Recycling Scenarios
  • Lifecycle of an EV Battery: Refurbishing and Re-Introduction into the Manufacturing Process
  • Hydrometallurgy Extraction and Cathode Production Process
  • Hydro-to-Cathode Extraction and Production Process
  • Recycling Facilities and State Regulatory Environments
  • IRA Stipulations for Raw Mineral Battery Composition Requirements from the US or Countries with an FT
  • Potential Recyclable Commodity Value by Type of Battery Composition
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