India, Taiwan, and Vietnam Are Key in Driving Seated e-Scooter Sales

According to Guidehouse Insights’ upcoming 4Q 2020 report, Market Data: Seated e-Scooters, global annual unit sales of seated e-scooters are expected to grow from roughly 5.7 million in 2020 to 10.3 million by 2030, at a compound annual growth rate of 6.1%. While China leads the market, likely accounting for 85% of seated e-scooter unit sales in 2020, this figure is expected to reduce to 55% by 2030 as sales in other countries grow more quickly. Three countries stand out as crucial for the future expansion of the seated e-scooter industry: India, Taiwan, and Vietnam. For forecast purposes, Taiwan is grouped in as part of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Asia Pacific category and Vietnam is combined with Rest of Asia Pacific. The populations of these countries have a high percentage of two-wheeler usage for transportation. They also have a growing presence of domestic seated e-scooter manufacturers and distributors.

Annual Unit Sales of Seated e-Scooters by Region and Country, World Markets: 2020-2030

(Source: Guidehouse Insights)

Three Countries Pushing e-Scooters Ahead

India is perhaps the most important emerging market for seated e-scooters. The country has strong potential to follow in China’s footsteps as a market leader with roughly 7 million gas scooter sales annually and a government committed to reducing air pollution and fossil fuel usage. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has set a target for 30% of two-wheeler sales to be electric by 2030. The country is home to several established seated e-scooter manufacturers, such as Hero Electric, which has more than 600 dealers across India and offers over 10 seated e-scooter models. India also has a growing list of innovative seated e-scooter startups such as Okinawa and Ather Energy.

Taiwan is the main driver of seated e-scooter sales in OECD Asia Pacific. Domestic manufacturer, Gogoro, has successfully deployed a battery swap network at scale. It has sold over 350,000 seated e-scooters with roughly 700,000 batteries that are in its network. In 2019, seated e-scooters from Gogoro and its partners (including Yamaha Corporation and AEON MOTOR) accounted for 26% of all scooter sales in Taiwan, including gas scooters. Looking ahead, Gogoro, is anticipating roughly 200,000 seated e-scooter sales in 2020 compared to 750,000 gas scooter sales.

In the Rest of Asia Pacific, Vietnam shows strong potential with the rapidly growing startup VinFast. The company is reportedly expected to sell over 100,000 seated e-scooters in 2020. VinFast also opened a $3.5 billion factory in mid-2020 and offers a low end seated e-scooter in Vietnam for less than $600.

Suppliers Should Focus on High Growth Markets

Vendors in the seated e-scooter industry need to focus their product development, distribution, and marketing efforts in the countries that have the most potential for rapid growth. While countries such as the US may be enticing due to the large population size with relatively high levels of disposable income, the strong car culture and lack of any significant business-to-consumer gas scooter market indicates that a windfall for seated e-scooters is unlikely. Guidehouse Insights recommends suppliers focus on expanding the markets for seated e-scooters in countries that have strong two-wheeler cultures and a desire to reduce urban air pollution. These countries include but are not limited to India, Taiwan, Vietnam, as well as Indonesia, Thailand, France, Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Italy.