Assessing Business Opportunities Across the Micromobility Value Chain

In 2020, personal micromobility vehicle sales grew at unprecedented levels. Most countries around the world achieved record business-to-consumer sales figures for e-bikes, kick and seated e-scooters, and e-motorcycles. Shared micromobility is seeing a resurgence in 2021 after revenue plunged 58% in the US in 2020 due to COVID-19 lockdowns, benefiting from the favorable regulatory environment following the pandemic and improved vehicle durability and safety features. Additionally, emerging innovations in the micromobility industry, such as battery swapping and smart charging hubs, are enabling faster market growth and increased business opportunities for suppliers. 

Navigating the Micromobility Opportunity Landscape

Micromobility opportunities are far broader than vehicle manufacturing. Additional revenue potential is available to suppliers across several areas, including developing public charging infrastructure; battery swapping equipment and services; and offering solutions for docking, charging, and redistributing light EVs. New mobility as a service (MaaS) platform solutions are also being developed to better integrate shared micromobility with the public transport ecosystem.

The following figure shows Guidehouse Insights’ micromobility business opportunity heatmap. Characteristics of each micromobility vehicle technology—including historical and projected adoption rates, revenue opportunities, and technological maturity—have all been weighed against the outlined business opportunities.

Micromobility Business Opportunity Heat Map

 
(Source: Guidehouse Insights)

Which Market Segments Offer the Most Opportunity for Growth?

Vehicle manufacturing is likely the strongest business opportunity emerging from the growth in micromobility sales. India, where more than 20 million two-wheel vehicles are sold annually, is a prime example of the opportunity’s scale. Suppliers can also position themselves to benefit from anticipated market growth by providing micromobility vehicles and charging equipment (e.g., motors, batteries, charging cables, power converters, wall boxes); software solutions and platforms for payment, tracking, and charging management; and charging installation, operation, and maintenance services.

Guidehouse Insights expects battery swapping to emerge as one of the top business opportunities in the micromobility industry over the next decade. The technology offers vastly reduced charging times (seated e-scooter batteries can be swapped in as little as 6 seconds) and the ability to lower upfront purchase prices through the battery as a service (BaaS) business model. According to Guidehouse Insights’ report Battery Swapping Markets for Transportation Applications, the installed base of light EV battery swapping stations is expected to grow from roughly 19,863 locations in 2021 to 328,000 by 2030 at a compound annual growth rate of 36.6%. The deployment of light EV battery swapping infrastructure is creating strong revenue growth in BaaS subscription fees and equipment sales from battery swapping system hardware.

As the market for micromobility sharing services continues to mature, Guidehouse Insights expects a growing business opportunity for docking, charging, and redistributing these vehicles in cities. Technologies such as smart charging hubs are proliferating to better organize e-kick scooters and other micromobility vehicles in cities. Automated or teleoperated scooters—along with onboard computing, AI, data analytics, connectivity services, and fleet and asset tracking solutions—can also be used to enhance vehicle redistribution and recharging strategies.

Finally, as shared micromobility options proliferate globally, an increasing number of cities and transit agencies are looking for solutions that can better integrate micromobility within the broader public transport ecosystem. MaaS platforms that provide mapping, real-time transit data, and ride-hailing and micromobility availability are one such solution.

Although the micromobility market is growing quickly and offers numerous revenue opportunities, suppliers need to carefully consider their individual business strengths and capabilities to determine which opportunities to pursue—particularly when considering the highly competitive supplier landscape. For further analysis and recommendations for micromobility industry players to capitalize on the growing market, see Guidehouse Insights’ report Capitalizing on Micromobility Value Chain Opportunities.