A Bright Future for 48-Volt Systems

When Guidehouse Insights first took a look at 48-volt (48V) systems for cars back in the fourth quarter of 2013, the technology was seen essentially as offering a more powerful version of the stop-start advancements that were becoming ubiquitous in Europe and gaining a foothold in North America as a low-cost way to achieve better fuel efficiency. Prospects looked very promising. A second assessment in April 2015 identified that the practicalities of production costs had dampened the initial enthusiasm and delayed some launches, but there were still sound reasons why 48V looked set to become an established technology.

As work begins on an update to our detailed research report, it’s worth taking a quick look at the potential for the future. The production launch of the Audi SQ7 in 2016 saw the first introduction of a 48V system, and it indicates a possible future direction for the technology. As well as a more powerful stop-start system for a large diesel engine, the higher voltage makes possible an electric turbocharger for better performance and an electric suspension option that gives improved stability and ride quality over rough surfaces. More energy is recovered for reuse than is possible with a 12V system.

At First a Luxury

As has been the case for many emerging technologies in the past, the first applications are seen on high-end luxury and performance vehicles, with new functionality and performance being the primary incentives rather than fuel efficiency, as that is what people are prepared to pay for. As suppliers get behind the new technology and volumes grow, the component costs will come down and new features will be developed.

With more electrical power available, it becomes practical to introduce more accessories powered by small electric motors rather than driven via a belt on the crankshaft. By only using power when needed, such systems reduce the load on the engine and lead to small fuel economy improvements that are becoming increasingly important as governments impose penalties for missing efficiency targets. This arrangement also permits engine-off operation of functions such as HVAC and power steering.

Small electric motors can also provide some meaningful drive assistance when combined with a slightly bigger battery than the standard starter variety. On large vehicles this might save some fuel, while on smaller vehicles it could allow electric-only operation in some low-power circumstances such as coasting, sailing, and low-speed maneuvers in traffic jams or while parking. Implementing new electric suspension options also brings the ability to harvest energy, as well as to improve comfort and handling.

Europe in the Lead

48V technology development is being led by the European OEMs and Tier One suppliers such as Schaeffler, Continental, Valeo, and Bosch. At present, it appears that European vehicles will lead the rollout of the technology, which is then expected to spread to North America and some markets in Asia. Japan may be one large market exception because of its heavy investment in full hybrid drive. The introduction of 48V systems will also bring another potential growth market for battery and ultracapacitor suppliers. Once the component costs come down, there will also be new business opportunities for the technology in the commercial vehicle sector, which has developed its own 24V systems to deliver the necessary power but has never itself had the volumes to bring prices down.