7% of Long-Haul Trucks Estimated to be Electric by 2033
Market barriers include purchase price, infrastructure, and scarcity of production capacity
A new report from Guidehouse Insights explores the landscape for long-haul truck electrification in the US.
Industry experts expect long-haul trucks to be among the last automotive sectors to electrify due to their high purchase cost and the lack of available charging infrastructure. According to a new report from Guidehouse Insights, almost 7% of long-haul trucks in service across the US will be electric by 2033. Market penetration is expected to vary by state and region, with the Midwest and West leading the way and the Northeast and Southwest lagging significantly behind.
However, this outlook includes substantial uncertainty, and several factors could affect battery EV (BEV) adoption for long-haul trucks, including the emergence of hydrogen semis, challenges in infrastructure installation, and automated driving, according to the report.
“Over the next 10 years, the primary driver for electric semi sales will be state-level zero emissions vehicle sales mandates such as California’s Advanced Clean Trucks regulation,” says William Sierzchula, senior research analyst with Guidehouse Insights. “After 2035, sales are likely to be driven by reductions in battery costs and a more established charging infrastructure.”
The challenge of providing power for en route charging means a high level of uncertainty around the number of corridor ports and their rated capacity. By definition, long-haul trucking has longer routes than short-haul operations. Through analysis of vehicle trips and expected driving range, Guidehouse Insights estimates that approximately 70% of long-haul charging will occur away from depots and at corridor ports along interstates and highways.
The report, Long-Haul Truck Electrification in the US, analyzes the US long-haul trucking market and its potential for electrification over the next decade. It provides deployment and sales outlooks for long-haul trucks in the US from 2024-2033, broken down by powertrain and region, and analyses for the charging infrastructure and energy needed to support electrified long-haul trucking operations for the same time period, broken down by region and use case. An executive summary of the report is available for free download on the Guidehouse Insights website.
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* The information contained in this press release concerning the report, Long-Haul Truck Electrification in the US, is a summary and reflects the current expectations of Guidehouse Insights based on market data and trend analysis. Market predictions and expectations are inherently uncertain and actual results may differ materially from those contained in this press release or the report. Please refer to the full report for a complete understanding of the assumptions underlying the report’s conclusions and the methodologies used to create the report. Neither Guidehouse Insights nor Guidehouse undertakes any obligation to update any of the information contained in this press release or the report.